On Long Island, Iranian Americans see a path to new freedom in embattled Iran

Janet Nina Esagoff, a Great Neck attorney, remembers going to Iran as a child before Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

With the death of Khomeini's successor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Esagoff, 56, a New Jersey native, said she is optimistic that for the first time in decades, her family's native country will be released from the grip of theocratic rule.

"My community and extended family are proud of our heritage and Persian roots," Esgoff said. "We celebrate those roots and are witnessing what is happening. We are very hopeful Iran will be liberated and the people can live in freedom."

Theocracy on the brink

Forty-seven years after the Islamic Revolution ended the country's monarchy of more than 2,000 years, the theocracy that replaced it is facing an uncertain future amid American and Israeli strikes Saturday that killed Khamenei and several others in the government's senior leadership.

On Long Island, Esagoff and other Iranian Americans are weighing in on the political future of the country, should leadership topple during the newly launched war.

Experts said there is no clear path forward in Iran since the airstrikes began early Saturday and were continuing late Monday.

Iran's decentralized and fundamentalist government, including the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, is still leading the country and directing counter attacks on neighboring countries in the Middle East and U.S. forces there, said Hofstra University associate professor Paul Fritz, who serves as chair of the school's political science department.

"It is really unclear right now with the leadership gone in Iran and the war plan of the U.S. only using air power. Anything internally in Iran is dependent on internal dynamics," Fritz said. "There’s a whole lot to be determined and it’s really hard to tell what the future of Iran is unclear right now."

Many Americans oppose the strikes, which President Donald Trump has warned could last for a month or longer and may require ground troops.

A CNN poll released Monday found 6 in 10 Americans oppose the war. Congressional Democrats have by and large opposed Trump taking unilateral military action without House and Senate approval. Dueling demonstrations — one Saturday against the strikes, one Sunday celebrating Khamenei's demise, took place on the streets of Manhattan.

Twilight of oppression

The airstrikes have killed at least 555 people, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. Six U.S. troops serving in Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have died in counterstrikes by Iran, American officials said Monday.

Port Washington resident Farshid Bakhshi saw the recent upheaval in Iran as the possible twilight of the oppressive Islamic Republic.

Bakhshi, who is of Iranian-Jewish descent and works in event entertainment within the Persian community, said the outcome hinges on whether the military campaign continues long enough so that the regime can’t crack down on residents, allowing "for real change to happen on the ground."

"I don't think it's going to be a ... quick fix," he said in a phone interview. "Under the best scenario, there will be a period of chaos, even if people are really determined."

Bakhshi said a potential move toward democracy could include a leadership role for exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last ousted shah. Sunday's Manhattan demonstration and march was dominated by people hoping for Pahlavi's return to Iran.

The people's decision

Ultimately, Bakhshi said, the people of Iran should be able to choose the form of governance they live under if given the chance.

"The people of Iran really deserve it," he said. "They deserve democracy, and they have ... been fighting for it for decades."

Ali Azad, of East Meadow, arrived in the United States from Tehran in 1976 — roughly three years before the Islamic Revolution. Azad said he has watched the fallout from Israeli and U.S. strikes with concern because his mother and several other relatives still call the country home. Usually, Azad is able to speak with his mother nearly every day, but since the strikes, he has been unable to reach her or any other relative in Iran.

"I don't know if they're alive, if everything's OK, if they're not," Azad said.

But, amid the instability, he sees the stirrings of political change. Azad, who said he is not religious, hopes the country will become a democracy that doesn’t hark back to the rule of either the shah or the ayatollah.

"We are looking for a democratic republic," he said in a phone interview on Sunday. "We are not looking for any kind of dictatorship, whether it be religious or the previous one, the shah. We are not looking for that."

Azad said most people in the Iranian American community want an end to the regime because many fled the government’s repression. At the moment, Azad said, he doesn’t think he can return to the country because he has been outspoken at demonstrations.

"I can’t go back," he said, "because if I would go back, ... I would be basically jailed, tortured or killed."

No certain outcome

Fritz warned about the checkered history of the United States toppling authoritarian regimes, which rarely lead to new democracies or stable leadership without extensive American support.

He said the attack may have parallels to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which killed more than 3,500 U.S. service members and more than 250,000 Iraqi citizens, when the U.S. expected democracy to flourish.

"The Trump administration is banking on the people rising up and demanding some change to the regime," Fritz said. "Foreign imposed regime change doesn’t work very often. The record is clear and foreign imposed democracy is even more rate without an unbelievable amount of resources and time. The prospects are very slim."

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Correction: Janet Nina Esagoff's name was misspelled in an earlier version of this story.