Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman announces run for NYS governor

Bruce Blakeman's entry into the governor's race could test the strength of Nassau and Suffolk's Republican parties, which fared better on election night than most of New York, political analysts told Newsday.

Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran political consultant, said Blakeman could parlay his strategy in getting reelected as Nassau County executive to his run for the state's highest office. He pointed to election night victories on Long Island, which saw the GOP dominate local and countywide races.

"Nassau and Suffolk County are the most successful Republican organizations in the state today, and if they want Blakeman, they'll get Blakeman — because they can turn out a vote," Sheinkopf said.

Blakeman launched his bid Tuesday with a video message on his campaign website, touting a record managing Nassau County that includes keeping taxes flat and working with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He also touted his election night victory in securing a second term for office last month. 

He echoed that sentiment on social media and Fox News Tuesday morning, claiming he made inroads last month with independent voters, Asian voters, African Americans and even Democrats.

"We won by 36,000 votes in a county with 110,000 more Democrats," he said. 

Long Island makes up 17% of voters across the state with 2.1 million active voters. The Nassau and Suffolk GOP raised about $25 million for its local candidates last month, Newsday previously reported. Blakeman cruised to a 12-point win over Democrat Seth Koslow. He narrowly edged out incumbent Democrat Laura Curran four years earlier to become Nassau County executive. 

Election night results showed Republicans in Nassau and Suffolk fared better than counties across New York, presenting a test of whether the parties can replicate that success across the rest of the state. 

Michael Dawidziak, a Republican strategist, agreed, having previously told Newsday that the local GOP's on-the-ground strength will be felt across New York if a statewide candidate is coming from Long Island. He added in an interview with Newsday on Tuesday that Blakeman can also tap into the pockets of Nassau's wealthy residents to power his campaign. 

"He represents an area where there's a lot of money," Dawidziak said. "I assume he's going to raise a very decent amount of money fast." 

The bid will pit Blakeman in a Republican battle with North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik for the opportunity to challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in next year's election.

Blakeman's decision to enter also "presents a problem for the old Republicans versus the new Republicans," according to Sheinkopf, pegging Blakeman as more closely aligned with what voters want.

"It's like the Bernie Sanders model. Bernie Sanders represents more what the Democratic Party is really about. Bruce Blakeman represents more what the Republican Party is really about," he said. "People may not know him as well, but he's got a very simple and clear message, which is ... 'I'll keep taxes stable, I'll make sure people stop leaving the state, and I'll make sure that the far left won't do the things they want to the rest of us.'"

In the video launching his campaign, Blakeman ventured into controversial aspects of his first tenure as county executive, including the county's cooperation agreement with ICE, his executive order prohibiting transgender athletes from competing in women's sports and his close relationship with President Donald Trump.

Blakeman had been touring the state to gauge support for a gubernatorial bid following his reelection win in November, in what was one of the few Republican bright spots in New York in this year’s election season.

The announcement video also featured images of those Blakeman says he is out to defeat, including a side-by-side shot of Hochul and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

In a statement, Hochul campaign spokeswoman Sarafina Chitika called Blakeman a "bootlicker" and cited his previous losses in races for county legislator, state comptroller and New York City mayor, along with House and Senate seats.

"Blakeman raised costs on New Yorkers and cheered on Trump’s tariffs like the MAGA fanboy he is — flying all the way to D.C. to applaud higher prices," Chitika said. "He gushed that Trump is doing an ‘amazing job’ by gutting Medicaid and jacking up costs. We’re not about to let him turn the governor’s mansion into Mar-a-Lago North."

Stefanik, of Schuylerville in Saratoga County, has been endorsed by state Republican Chairman Ed Cox and county-level Republican leaders. She featured them prominently on social media touting her bid on Monday night.

A Stefanik campaign spokeswoman said Monday that Blakeman "has no shot" and that his bid "blows up the best opportunity in a generation" for Republicans.

"He has no support from Republican or Conservative voters or party apparatus," Stefanik spokeswoman Bernadette Breslin said of Blakeman's campaign. "Blakeman was discouraged from running at the highest levels so as not to jeopardize Republicans' chances. It is unfortunate that he is putting his ego first to help prop up Kathy Hochul." 

But Stefanik's record will make it hard to win over the 30% of New York City voters generally required for a Republican nominee to win the governor's race, according to Sheinkopf.

"Even though abortion is protected by law in New York State ... she's opposed to it," he said. That will make it hard "to get the numbers she needs in New York City."

Stefanik's campaign has said she opposes abortion except in cases of incest, rape or when a mother's life is at risk, according to reports. Blakeman has been supporter of abortion  for three decades, his spokesman said.

It's possible that if Lee Zeldin, a 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate who is against abortion and won 30% of New York City votes, "softened or moved a little to the middle on that issue earlier on, he might've won," Dawidziak said.

Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone in the race and, when questioned Monday by a Newsday reporter, stayed out of the fray and said he supported both candidates.

"I’ll have to think about it," Trump said. "They’re both great people."

The latest Siena College poll showed Hochul with a 20-point lead over Stefanik. The November survey didn't ask about Hochul versus Blakeman.

Back in July, a Siena survey gave Hochul a 23-point lead over Stefanik and 25 over Blakeman.

"Bruce is nothing if not exciting and fun to watch," Dawidziak said. "He's going to make this race a lot more interesting."

 Correction: Bruce Blakeman supports abortion rights. An earlier version misstated his stance on the issue due to an editing error.