Races on Long Island could help decide control of Congress

WASHINGTON — From Long Island and the Hudson Valley to Arizona and California, party control of the U.S. House hinges on a complex map of up to 50 competitive campaigns this fall.

Labor Day kicks off the traditional stretch run of congressional campaigns, and this year’s Nov. 3 midterm election is shaping up as a potential nail-biter.

In an era of regional political polarization and ruthless gerrymandering of district boundaries, roughly 88% of the 435 House races are not particularly competitive. But Democrats need only a net gain of as few as three seats to seize majority control.

"The political environment and history are very much in their favor," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election-handicapping newsletter produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said of Democrats.

At stake is whether President Donald Trump and Republicans lose their unified control of the House and Senate for the final two years of Trump’s second White House term. Even if Republicans maintain their Senate majority, which is no sure thing, an opposition-controlled House could block presidential initiatives and pound the administration with investigations enforced by committee subpoenas.

Only twice since 1946 has the president's party managed a net gain of House seats during a midterm. The most recent was in 2002, when the country was still rallying around President George W. Bush in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks the year before.

However, Kondik offered, "I think there is a world in which House Republicans hold on."

He said that will require an improvement in the next two months in Trump’s low, mid-30s approval ratings, which are down amid an unpopular Iran war and Americans’ concerns over rising prices.

Coinciding with those low Trump numbers, most polling this year favors a generic Democrat over a generic Republican in the congressional elections.

The extent to which Trump may still seek to make the election about himself will be a factor, analysts say, including that not all Republicans may even want him to stump with them.

"Republican candidates embracing an unpopular president may energize Democrats and turns off voters in the center,"  said Shawn Donahue, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo. "But if they choose not to embrace Trump, they risk the MAGA base not turning out,"

One early test is Trump’s plan for a first-ever GOP midterm convention on Sept. 9 and 10 in Dallas — where he is expected to deliver the closing address.

Some Democrats already are seizing on the opportunity to call for their GOP opponents to announce publicly if they plan to be there with Trump or not.

At the same time, Donahue said that, for Democrats, things are more complicated than the simple math of needing a net gain of three House seats to gain the chamber’s majority in January.

With mid-decade gerrymandering, he explains, Republicans have been able to rejigger a greater number of currently held Democratic seats into ones favoring Republican enrollment. That includes seats in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.

Those seats outnumber the ones Democrats have seen redrawn their way in California and Utah. In short, this makes the challenge for Democrats more difficult than merely picking up new seats, because they must also defend more seats that have been made tougher for them to keep, Donahue said.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) last week emphasized at the U.S. Capitol that Republicans in this two-year session have scored tax-cutting and other legislative achievements. He also said Republicans will bring swing voters to their side, in part by tying Democratic opponents to the ascendence of socialists and extreme far-left members of their party.

"I've been saying this over and over, but Republicans are going to defy history in 63 days and we're going to hold this House majority," Johnson said.

The top House Democrat, Hakeem Jeffries, of Brooklyn, described his party’s message as geared to making life more affordable for Americans, including reversing GOP Medicaid and food program cuts, protecting Medicare, undoing Trump’s tariffs and "decisively ending Trump's war in the Middle East."

Jeffries would likely be chosen by his party to be the first Black speaker of the House — and just the third speaker from New York State — if Democrats take the majority.

Nonpartisan political handicappers, including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the Center For Politics, have identified competitive House races as numbering from three dozen to 50 — with up to 20 of those rated "tossups."

Here are some of the notable competitive House races.

New York-New Jersey

A marquee "toss-up" showdown is in the lower Hudson Valley in New York’s 17th Congressional District. That contest pits Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Democratic challenger Cait Conley, of New Castle, an Army veteran and former national security official.

In addition, two of Long Island’s congressional seats held by Democrats are considered "lean Democrat" seats, but competitive.

In the Nassau County-based 4th District, Rep. Laura Gillen, of Rockville Centre, is challenged by the Republican Town of Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll. And in the 3rd District, which includes parts of Nassau, Suffolk and Queens counties, Rep. Tom Suozzi, of Glen Cove, is in a rematch against his 2024 GOP opponent, former Assemb. Michael LiPetri, of Farmingdale.

These three suburban races are examples of where Republicans hope to score points by tying their opponents to nearby New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and other democratic socialists; all three Democrats have underscored they are moderates and are attempting to distance themselves from democratic socialists. Meanwhile, both the LiPetri and Driscoll camps said they plan to attend Trump's midterm GOP convention.

Some analysts, like Donahue, predict the 1st District seat from Suffolk County represented by Republican Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) also could become competitive if "a blue tsunami" develops. LaLota is being challenged by Chris Gallant, a Democrat from Amity Harbor.

In New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, southwest of New York City, GOP Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. — the son of the state’s former governor — finds himself in a competitive race versus Democrat and Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett. A backdrop is Kean’s mysterious 117-day absence from congressional duties this session, his reasons only afterward revealed by him to be related to treatment for depression.

Ohio

In Ohio’s 9th District, in the northwestern part of the state, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur — Congress’ longest serving woman representative — faces a competitive challenge from Republican Derek Merrin.

In the Buckeye state’s 7th District in  Cleveland's southern suburbs, GOP Rep. Max Miller is fighting to keep his seat against Democrat Brian Poindexter, at a time Miller is being  dogged by calls for his resignation amid domestic violence allegations.

California

In California’s 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao is being challenged by progressive Democratic challenger Randy Villegas. The Central Valley district was reshaped last year, but if Valadao notches another victory, he will be the last of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 over the Capitol riot to remain in Congress.

In the state's 48th District, in the San Diego area, Republican Darrel Issa is not running again. Forecasters see the race as tilting toward a Democratic flip, with Democrat Marni Van Wilpert running against Republican Jim Desmond.

Arizona

A New York Jets shadow hangs over the race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District in the Scottsdale area, which is an open-seat race because the Republican incumbent ran for another office. Both the Republican and Democratic hopefuls have ties to the NFL franchise.

Republican Jay Feely is a retired placekicker who was with the Jets in 2008 and 2009. His foe is Democrat Amish Shah, a former Jets sideline doctor for five seasons ending in 2012.

Virginia

In Virginia’s 2nd District, Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans finds herself in another race against former Democratic congresswoman Elaine Luria. She unseated Luria in the 2022 midterm elections for this seat representing southeastern parts of the state.