Latino voters on Long Island split on immigration policies as gubernatorial election looms

Oneyda Gallardo, a Salvadoran who lives in Smithtown, said she soured on the Democratic Party in recent years over the influx of migrants under former President Joe Biden.

A registered Democrat, Gallardo said she voted for President Donald Trump two years ago and still plans to support Republicans in the midterm elections.

But she said she's an outlier among Latino voters. Trump's deportation campaign, she said, will likely lead many Latinos who voted for him to turn to Democrats this year.

“If people’s relatives or friends were affected by the deportation campaign, they would not vote for Trump again,” she said. “That’s how it is going to go, because a lot of families were affected."

With early voting underway ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3, the fight to secure Latino votes remains central in the gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive. Polls suggest that nationally and statewide, immigration, once a strong issue for Republicans, has shifted this year to become more beneficial to Democrats like Hochul due to pushback over deportation tactics used by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Trump, political experts said.

In interviews with a dozen people in Long Island's largest Latino neighborhoods, many Democratic-leaning voters cited the deportation tactics and immigration as a top issue alongside affordability in the runup to the election, while some residents who previously supported Trump — who made gains with Latino voters when he won the White House in 2024 — say they still do.

Those views are reflected in a Newsday/Siena Research Institute poll released in September that found 55% of Long Islanders believe Blakeman will have a better handle on addressing undocumented immigrants, compared to 38% for Hochul. 

Statewide, however, is a different story. The same poll showed 47% of statewide voters believed Hochul would do a better job addressing the issue, with 43% choosing Blakeman. 

A Fox News poll in September found 53% of registered voters believed the Trump administration had "gone too far" in its enforcement of immigration laws.

But as some Latinos who've supported the GOP grapple with regrets, others continue to defend the deportation efforts.

Bill Melendez, 69, a Brentwood resident of Cuban descent, said he voted for Trump in 2024 and will keep supporting Trump’s party this election.

"The only thing I’m not happy with is the price of gas and fuel," said Melendez, who has been registered as a Republican or Conservative most of his life. "Other than that, I have no problem."

Melendez, a retired NYPD detective, said ICE is active in Brentwood, but "they’re picking up bad guys with warrants, so I have no problem with that. ... They’re not picking up kids out of school or anything like that."

Getting out to vote

Some Latino voters are willing to accept ICE tactics as a necessary way to remove criminals, while other voters say the tactics go too far and create fear for everyone in immigrant communities.

Pascale Fils-Aime, of Brentwood, brought her mother, Christine Fils-Aime, 74, to an early voting site to cast their ballots, with immigration at the forefront of their minds. Both Democratic supporters, they said they voted for Hochul and view Blakeman as too aligned with Trump. 

Christine Fils-Aime, a native of Haiti, said she sees the fear in the Latino community.

"A lot of people are not going out anymore because they're afraid that ICE will stop them here, stop them there, because after all, we're immigrants," she said.

She said speaking about the topic makes her "enraged."

"If they're going after my people, I feel threatened, too," she said.

Newsday reported earlier this year that less than 5% of the thousands of immigrants held in the Nassau jail through an ICE partnership were convicted of violent crimes. Some of those arrested by ICE include an honors student at Suffolk County Community College, a mother of five in Brentwood and a popular manager of a bagel cafe in Port Washington.

Hochul has maintained the enforcement approach is over the top, while Blakeman says federal cooperation — including an agreement he signed last year with ICE that's since been terminated — is needed in areas where immigrants are found to commit crimes. 

Luis Montes, a Brentwood-based political analyst and a Democrat, said he expects Democrats to make gains among Latino voters, but it may not be as big of a wave as some party leaders hope.

"I think that [Trump] has lost a lot of the support" of Latinos on Long Island, especially among Central Americans since they have been hit particularly hard by the Trump administration's deportation campaign, Montes said.

Milvy Sam-Rivas, 50, of Centereach, who works in health insurance, said immigration is a "very important" issue both for her work and as a community member.

A registered Democrat, Sam-Rivas was born in Guatemala and came to the United States, where she received a green card and citizenship after marrying her husband. As she waited for customers at a table she'd set up on a Brentwood street, she pointed to how businesses and restaurants in the area "are empty" due to fears in the immigrant community.

"Everything is out of control," she said. "People don't want to go out because they don't know if they're coming back to their house."

She said she believes Blakeman's earlier policy to cooperate with ICE left the Hispanic community "under attack."

Walter Mejia, a Patchogue resident who heads New York Republican Latinos, said he thinks support for Trump and Republicans will remain strong among Latinos on Long Island largely because Trump has cracked down on illegal immigration.

"I think a lot of people feel it is unfair that undocumented migrants come to New York State especially, and the country in general, and our tax dollars go to them," he said.

He and his parents came to the United States legally from El Salvador and, like other Latinos who did so, resent people coming here illegally, he said.

Deportation tactics

Experts say that while affordability and the economy will be key drivers for voter turnout, immigration will weigh heavily on some voters.

Basil Smikle, a Democratic political strategist and policy adviser, said ICE tactics "have brought this issue front and center for so many voters." He added that "it’s less about the legal framework and it’s more about the tactics and the ripping apart of community, and I think that stands in contrast to the way in which Trump and Republicans won in 2024."

Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran political consultant, said Hochul has employed a "Trump pile-on" strategy.

"If she can make it about Trump and she can make ICE part of that, she hopes to reduce the number of Latinos and others who might vote for Blakeman," he said.

He said Hochul's strategy of using immigration as a way to tie in Trump is likely to be less effective in the suburbs such as Long Island, but more effective in New York City.

J.C. Polanco, a Republican-leaning strategist, said the immigration topic has shifted from recent elections, specifically after Trump "sealed the border," which has made the migrant crisis during previous campaigns an issue that’s "off the chessboard."

Now it’s become more about ICE and the deportation tactics.

"We're seeing with our own eyes what's happening in some of these communities where innocent or hardworking undocumented people that are part of our community are being rounded up, and that doesn't bode well for the GOP," he said.

He said Hochul has gone from a more moderate position on immigration "to a more left-wing position, which is: We’re not working with ICE."

Hochul has said local agencies will work with federal law enforcement when there's an arrest warrant, a court order or a crime that has been committed. "We are not a sanctuary for criminals," she has said.

Polanco said Blakeman still leads with independents on immigration, which he said he attributes to the border policies under Biden.

"We don’t want open borders," he said of many Latino voters like himself. "We understand the problems that open borders create."