Once on the ropes, Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats have path back to majority

WASHINGTON — Turns out, New York’s Chuck Schumer and his Democrats do have a fighting chance at retaking the U.S. Senate majority, though polls show it remains an uphill climb.

In a situation seen as unlikely by political handicappers just months ago, and having faced episodes of liberal fury, low approval ratings and even calls to step down as Senate Democratic leader, Schumer, 75, told Newsday his motto has remained: "Persist, persist, persist."

"We’re not letting up a single day, a single minute, a single second," the Brooklyn native said in an interview.

And now, in the stretch run of an election two weeks away, a pathway to seizing the Senate majority from Republicans has emerged, as eight or nine battleground states will decide the outcome. Experts said it's a product, in part, of Schumer’s political skill, low approval ratings for President Donald Trump, luck — or all three, if not necessarily in that order.

No matter which party wins control of the Senate, Schumer told Newsday, he’s already decided to ask colleagues to give him another two-year stint atop their Democratic caucus. "Yes, I’m running for leader, and our caucus is strong and united on winning back the Senate, and our caucus is all working together," he said.

If he is picked to lead, and Democrats do gain control of the chamber, it would mean a return for Schumer as Senate majority leader, a post he held from 2021 to 2025. Other names have been floated as potential challengers, but no one is yet saying they will make a bid. Weeks before an election is when party members want to project unity.

But what about down the road? When Schumer was pressed about any plans to run in 2028 for a sixth six-year term in his Senate seat, he was much less talkative. There has been speculation that other Democrats, like progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx, Queens) — who went public last year with her anger at Schumer's decision to vote for a GOP funding bill to avert a government shutdown — could challenge him.

"My focus is on winning the Senate," he said, adding that’s been his focus for a year and a half. Schumer, first elected to the Senate in 1998 and serving before that in the House for 18 years, also didn't answer a question about stepping away from politics: "Look, my mission is to help American people lead better lives. That’s my focus."

The stakes, if the Senate changes hands, could be huge. A Democratic majority would be able to block Trump's nominees for Cabinet positions, jam his picks for the Supreme Court and other federal judgeships, and, like the House, wield majority subpoena power to investigate the administration.

Republicans, including some from New York, don’t spare harsh words for Schumer. Last year, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) said, "After 50 years in elected office, I wouldn’t trust Chuck Schumer to run a lemonade stand, let alone the federal government. No wonder he’s petrified of AOC." Lawler was incensed over what he said were false claims about him made by Schumer related to Medicaid and other issues.

National environment

A chunk of any perceived Democratic momentum in the Senate races right now has come in the form of an increasingly gloomy political environment for Trump and Republicans. That includes the president’s sagging approval ratings, tied in part to voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living and frustrations with the Iran war.

"The national environment is horrible for Republicans, and President Trump's decision to attack Iran has the effect of increasing gas prices and, I believe, subsequently decreasing his own approval rating, to the point where he is now underwater even in states that voted for him by double digits," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an election-handicapping newsletter.

"This is more about Republican problems than Democratic successes, but I also think Schumer deserves credit for [candidate] recruitment in the red states," he said.

"Throughout, Schumer has been steady, self-effacing and strategic," offered Donald Nieman, a political expert and history professor at Binghamton University. "But more important than his skill is an environment few could have imagined a year ago."

Senate Republicans are banking on massive campaign spending to help drive conservative voters to the polls.

As recently as Tuesday, Schumer warned fellow Democratic senators in a letter obtained by Newsday that a Trump-related super PAC could be prepared to spend between $400 million and $500 million to support Republican candidates. He also wrote that Elon Musk is funneling hundreds of millions of dollars in the midterms to boost Republicans, and so are other billionaires.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has said in interviews he believes Republicans will pull out a victory, but in cautious tones. He told Politico earlier this month during a campaign swing in Minnesota, "I think we can keep the majority," but added, "I think all of these races are margin-of-error, at least the ones that we have to win. And historically, at least if you look at polls, we tend to outperform them."

Independent handicappers already have been predicting that Democrats will seize control of the House.

The math for Senate control

Senate Republicans currently hold a majority with 53 of 100 seats, while the Democrats and their allies hold the remaining 47. There are 35 Senate contests in this midterm election, and Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to take the majority.

In the interview with Schumer — and in discussions with multiple nonpartisan analysts and Republican strategists — what emerges is that Senate races in eight to nine states are the likely deciders, and that Democrats must gain at least two seats in states that Trump won by double digits two years ago. They would need to win more than four states if they lose any seats they now hold.

Analysts point to five Republican-held seats that are pivotal if Democrats hope to flip control: Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas and Iowa.

Other key races are in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota and possibly Kansas.

North Carolina is now widely seen as already off the board, with Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper well ahead in polls. Republicans had initially hoped to win that state. In Georgia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff also has a strong polling lead.

Public polling on Schumer himself, among New Yorkers and nationally, continues to show his unfavorability ratings in the mid-40s, but most not at the lows last year amid calls for him to resign or step aside by progressive groups for going along with the Republican-backed funding bill to avert a government shutdown.

He's since regained some footing within his party, including through his tougher stances during last year’s later record-long partial government shutdown, and by leading efforts to block Trump's nominees.

Now, with the potential flip of Senate control, public chatter has softened within the party — but not disappeared — about dumping him as the chamber’s top Democrat.

Exceptions include both Michigan candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Minnesota candidate Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who defeated more moderate primary candidates backed by Schumer. Both candidates said they would back someone else for Senate caucus leader if they are elected.

Democratic knives were out for Schumer last year over the deal he and a group of fellow Democrats brokered with Senate Republicans to reopen the government after the record-setting partial shutdown — without winning a central Democratic demand, the renewal of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits.

"Sen. Schumer is no longer effective and should be replaced," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) wrote on X. "If you can’t lead the fight to stop healthcare premiums from skyrocketing for Americans, what will you fight for?"

Veteran New York Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf in earlier interviews told Newsday that one overarching aspect of the attacks on Schumer and speculation on his future is that they come amid the strong undercurrent of dissatisfied "younger voters and the long-term AOC-Mamdani effect," focused largely on age and succession issues. That’s a long-term reality facing Schumer.

But if Schumer can pull off this "not impossible but tough" effort to grab the Senate majority, Sheinkopf said Tuesday, "he will be an awed national Democratic Party hero."

Sheinkopf added, "He will be feared by those who once counted him out. And that’s the way it should be."

As for Schumer, he remains focused on the next two weeks. He predicted that Democrats will keep the four states they hold now, and of the states that Trump won by double digits in 2024, he said, "We are neck and neck."