Anatomy of an upset: How Joe Scianablo upended John Ferretti in the Hempstead supervisor race

Of all the local election outcomes Tuesday, perhaps the most stunning was Democratic challenger Joe Scianablo's defeat of incumbent Republican Town Supervisor John Ferretti in Hempstead, a GOP stronghold on Long Island for more than a century.

Hempstead is the town where former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, a Republican stalwart, first made his mark before rising to national prominence in the 1980s and '90s. It's where current Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republicans' choice to run for governor this year, was on the town board just five years ago.

That board is dominated by Republicans, as it was when Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) was the supervisor. She was the last Democrat to serve in the town's top job after she won in 2017 — and before Tuesday, the only Democrat elected to the post in more than 100 years. Scianablo — who was defeated just last year by Ferretti in the supervisor election — is now the second.

How did he win this time around? 

Several factors were at play, experts say, including a boost in voter turnout that was fueled in part by a move to even-year elections; national backlash against Republicans and President Donald Trump that had a ripple effect locally; and a dramatic change in the demographics of Hempstead Town over the past quarter century.

The supervisor race was a rematch of last November, as Ferretti — in a post that's typically a two-year term — was forced to seek reelection this year because of the state's shift to even-year voting. He was appointed in August of last year and will leave office after serving about 17 months.

Both Ferretti and Scianablo received tens of thousands more votes than they did last November. But this time, the advantage went to the challenger. 

Here's a look at how it happened.

The even-year shift

State Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs said the shift to even-year elections was decisive in the Hempstead race. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the even-year law, which affects two- and four-year elected offices in towns, in 2023.

"I fought for 11 years to get even-year voting, and we're seeing the results all across the state and right here in Nassau County," Jacobs said in an interview. "We win more seats when more people vote," he said of Democrats, "and more people vote in the even year than in the odd year."

Across Nassau County, turnout increased by 70% this year compared with 2025, according to official and unofficial results from the Nassau County Board of Elections. 

That trend held in Hempstead, where turnout for the supervisor's race rose by 72% this year compared with a year ago. About 293,000 voted in the race this year, compared with about 170,000 in 2025, according to board of elections figures. Scianablo received about 51.7% of the vote to 48% for Ferretti.

Changing demographics

That greater turnout means more minority voters casting votes, said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. 

"Areas where the Republicans are weakest kind of bit them," Levy said. "Black and Latino voters who don't come out for town races because they were in odd years came out in droves."

U.S. census data shows the town's demographics have shifted in the 21st century as Hempstead has become more racially diverse. About three-quarters of the population in 2000 was non-Hispanic white, compared to about half in 2025, according to the census. 

"Whether they [minorities] were motivated against Ferretti or for Scianablo, the point is that they are going to be a major factor," Levy said. "The Republicans can't count on them to stay home moving forward."

Despite the town's longstanding reputation as a Republican stronghold, Democrats have long had a sizable advantage in voter registration. That hasn't translated into many local election victories, however. 

Figures provided by the Nassau County Board of Elections show that Democrats made up 39.6% of registered voters in Hempstead, compared with 29.5% registered Republicans. The next largest group was "blanks," voters unaffiliated with any party, making up 29% of registered voters in the town.

While details on the percentage turnout per party in Hempstead this year weren’t available Friday, data shows that both Democratic and Republican party enrollment, as percentages of total registered voters, has fallen slightly. Meanwhile, the percentage of blanks has increased since last year, from 26.2% to 29.1%, according to board of elections data. 

"When you look at Long Island, it's obviously not red, not blue — it's purple; it's swing districts," said political consultant Michael Dawidziak. "It's very evenly split between Republicans, Democrats and independents, and that means the independents usually make the decision."

The Trump factor

Dawidziak said Trump pulled down Republican candidates, with defeats and tighter margins in Nassau and Suffolk. He said Trump's standing with independents made the difference. 

"When you've got a president, a sitting president, who's got a 30% approval rating among the independents on Long Island, a midterm election is the referendum on the sitting president. That's not good for the down-ballot candidates," Dawidziak said.

Scianablo himself acknowledged the influence of what's been called a blue wave washing across the nation.

"We had historic voter turnout, on top of the fact that what's going on at the national level surely helped and trickled down," he said. "But make no mistake, we were going up against the Republican machine here."

Attempts to reach Ferretti for comment were unsuccessful.

Nassau County Republican Committee chairman Joseph Cairo pinned the blame for Ferretti’s defeat on "a nationwide mood against us," citing Republican losses in Kansas, South Carolina and Texas. He also said the change to even-year elections made it more difficult for local elections to get the attention they deserved.

"There's a nationwide thing out here, and that's what prevailed here; it wasn't about Ferretti or his opponent," Cairo said in an interview. "Giving all the credit to Scianablo, he won, and I congratulate him, but I don’t think this is really your typical local supervisor’s race."

Cairo said Ferretti’s message of holding the line on taxes was the right one.

"I don't think the people got to really see or understand that message because I think there was a national trend against Republicans," Cairo said.

On election night, Cairo said Hempstead’s changing demographics had been a factor in the loss. But on Friday, he rejected the notion, noting that the party ran Indian-American Saritha Komatireddy against Letitia James for attorney general, and last year ran Sheharyar Ali, a South Asian-American, for the Nassau County Legislature.

"Our party is all welcoming to everyone and we will continue to be that way," Cairo said.

The even-year election makes it hard for local elections to compete for attention when there are bigger races going on, Cairo said. 

"The lower candidates on the ballot couldn't get their message out, competing against gubernatorial candidates," he said. "The supervisor's race got lost in the shuffle."

One consolation for Republicans: Though even-year voting brought out more voters this year in a way that favored Democrats, it can go the other way, Dawidziak said. 

"The blue wave can go red wave too," he said.

Lessons learned from 2025 loss

Tuesday's result also can be attributed to the fact that Scianablo, after his defeat last year, was apparently unfazed.

He said in an interview that days after his defeat last November, his 2026 campaign began; that he relied on "a tremendous group of volunteers that organized on Nov. 17 last year."

"We hit the gas continuously through this cycle to ensure we were in every community listening to residents and hearing what most concerned them," he said. 

Jacobs said Scianablo's run last year made him a known entity.

After Ferretti's sudden appointment in August of last year at a town board meeting just minutes after Donald X. Clavin Jr. abruptly resigned, Scianablo filed a lawsuit alleging that the state's Open Meetings Law had been violated. The judge in the case agreed but allowed Ferretti to stay in office.  

"He wouldn't have to be introduced to people, he had some campaign experience," Jacobs said of Scianablo. "I'm sure that his name recognition was also a factor."

This year, the Ferretti campaign tried to connect Scianablo to Hochul and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, both Democrats. An ad on Ferretti's campaign Facebook page accused Scianablo, a former Queens County prosecutor and NYPD officer, of being soft on crime. And the Ferretti campaign removed a social media post in June that showed a doctored photograph that put Mamdani and Scianablo together, a scene that never happened and that Scianablo's lawyers said violated a state law regulating deceptive campaign material.

But linking Scianablo to Hochul didn't appear to hurt him, as the governor, in her race, was leading Blakeman in his home county of Nassau, according to unofficial results.  

Though Scianablo repeatedly challenged Ferretti to a debate, both this year and last year, Ferretti never agreed to one. The closest thing the public got to a debate was Scianablo's regular presence at town board meetings, where he criticized Ferretti and questioned his policies.

Ferretti often ignored Scianablo's comments or let town attorney John Maccarone answer for him.

"I think that not just the country, but the town has voted for change, clearly and decisively," Scianablo said. In Hempstead Town, he said, residents "voted for putting the people first."