Siena poll: Hochul widens lead over Blakeman to 14 points ahead of Election Day

Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul has increased her lead to 14 points over Republican Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, according to a new poll Wednesday, and has improved her standing in key categories, including independents and upstate voters.

With a week to go in the campaign for governor, Hochul leads Blakeman, 54% to 40%, the Siena University poll said, an increase from her 9-point margin in the university’s poll a month ago. That margin matches a Quinnipiac poll from last week.

Besides the overall number, there were some notable shifts within the trend.

Regionally, the poll said Hochul lead has grown in New York City’s five boroughs from 34 points last month to 44 now (67%-23%), while little has changed in the metropolitan suburbs (Hochul leads by 2).

But in Republican-rich upstate — which analysts have said Blakeman needs to win by 15 percentage points — Hochul has moved from 3 points down to 1 point up (49%-48%).

Also, independent voters would appear to have shifted to Hochul in the final month: From favoring Blakeman by 5 points to favoring Hochul by 11 (51%-40%).

"Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.

"And here’s the bottom line: For Republicans to win statewide, they must win convincingly upstate and in the downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they must win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one enrollment advantage," he said, noting Blakeman has a week to turn it around.

Siena surveyed 807 likely voters across the state from Oct. 19-22. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, meaning the answer to each question could vary that much.

In another shift, Hochul received a better than 50% "favorability rating" from New York voters for the first time since she ascended from the lieutenant governor post in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo resigned as governor. The poll said 51% of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of the governor and 45% unfavorable.

Siena said its numbers show Blakeman has improved his recognizability among voters (unknown to 21% of voters compared with 31% in September), but his favorability rating is still even (39% favorable, 40% unfavorable).

By 48% to 28%, voters said President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman has been a negative for the Nassau Republican’s campaign. Besides endorsing him, Trump headlined a Blakeman rally in Syracuse earlier this month.

Democratic incumbents lead the other statewide contests as well, according to Siena.

Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, now in his 20th year in the state’s top financial post, leads Republican Joseph Hernandez, 59% to 32%.

Attorney General Letitia James, seeking her third term, leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy, 54% to 39%.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy