Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, but Long Island could still get slammed by major storms, forecasters say

Forecasters are predicting a below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean this year but warn that major storms could still form and batter the East Coast and Long Island.

The National Weather Service on Thursday released its forecast for hurricane season, predicting between eight to 14 named storms. Of those, between three to six could become hurricanes with winds up to 74 mph or greater and between one to three could grow to category 3 to 5 hurricanes, with winds topping 111 mph in the Atlantic. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

A strong El Niño weather pattern is expected this year, which, if typical, will bring warmer ocean temperatures and weaker winds. The El Niño system could also bring a drier summer to the East Coast, but more frequent storms in the Western United States and in the Pacific Ocean, meteorologists said.

NewsdayTV meteorologist Geoff Bansen said that this year’s hurricane season will still be close to normal. He said storms are still expected to form and could do so rapidly, threatening the East Coast and Long Island.

"You may have less storms, but they can still be powerful storms," Bansen said. "There is notoriously lower-than-average hurricanes in a strong El Niño year, but there will be some windows, and storms will form. We’re not expecting a silent hurricane season, we undoubtedly will still have storms."

The weather service called for a 55% chance of a below-average hurricane season. An average hurricane season has 14 named storms. Meteorologists did not give a prediction on storms making landfall and said they had a 70% confidence level in their predictions.

Last year, in what meteorologists described as a neutral El Niño year, there were 13 named storms in the Atlantic, including five hurricanes. Three of those were Category 5s, the strongest, Bansen said.

The Eastern Pacific, including Mexico and California, is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season, according to the weather service. The strong El Niño system is expected to bring between 15 and 22 named storms, including between nine and 14 hurricanes and between five to nine major hurricanes.

Forecasters said that the more mild prediction in the Atlantic should not make those living on the coast and farther inland complacent.

"Don't let words like ‘below average,’ change the way you prepare," National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said during a briefing Thursday from Florida. "Every Category 5 that has made landfall in this country, was a tropical storm or less three days out, so they rapidly intensified. They hit you quick ... the reality is you only have days. That's why the preparedness really is absolutely everything."

The El Niño forecast, which generally could mean a warm, drier summer, does not prevent Long Island from heavy rainstorms that have hit Long Island in recent years, Bansen said.

The heavy rainstorms, precipitated by climate change and more water vapor in the air, can still lead to heavy rain and flooding like this week’s sudden storm, Bansen said.

He said it’s also a reminder that a quiet hurricane forecast does not safeguard Long Island from other coastal storms and hurricanes.

"It doesn’t mean Long Island is not going to see a storm," Bansen said. "It only takes one storm."

By John Asbury

john.asbury@newsday.comJohnAsbury

John Asbury is a breaking news and general assignment reporter. He has been with Newsday since 2014 and previously worked at The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, California.