Report: By 2040, LI's housing demand will be more than double what zoning allows
Long Island will need 256,843 additional housing units by 2040, according to a recent report by the Regional Plan Association. Credit: Newsday / John Keating
Long Island will need to build more than 250,000 new homes within the next two decades to meet the dramatically growing housing demand. Current zoning, however, will only allow about a third of that number to be built.
A recent report by the nonprofit Regional Plan Association stated that 256,843 additional housing units will be needed by 2040. The RPA estimates account for projected population growth as well as demand arising from structures expected to be flooded out from rising sea levels. Given local town and village zoning in place as of mid-2024, when the data in the report was analyzed, RPA estimates that only 102,252 houses can be built by 2040.
Currently, there's a steep decline in the issuance of private residential building permits on Long Island thanks to surging construction costs and builders being required to navigate regulatory and zoning hurdles. Soaring housing prices are pushing younger Long Islanders out of the region while exacerbating the current housing deficit.
More than 80% of Long Island is zoned land. According to data from the National Zoning Atlas, constructing two-unit housing structures is not permitted in 80% of all residential land in Nassau, and 94% of residential land in Suffolk. Meanwhile, building housing structures that have four or more units is prohibited in 93% of all residential land in Nassau and 96% of residential land in Suffolk.
The report also estimates that Long Island will lose about 50,568 houses by 2040 to rising sea levels and other climate risks such as storms and flooding.
Breakdown by towns and cities
The RPA calculates deficit ratios that compare housing needs with zoning capacity. The Town of Huntington recorded the largest deficit ratio at 5.9 compared with any other Long Island town or city, implying the town will need to build nearly six times more housing than it currently can. By 2040, the town is expected to need 17,861 new homes to meet its growing population, but current zoning permits construction of only 3,010 homes.
However, RPA’s data analysis did not include the recent December zoning change to the Melville Town Center, which will add as many as 1,500 units to the town’s total count.
Brookhaven Town will need to build nearly 43,100 additional homes to meet population demand by 2040, and currently has the capacity to build only 10,444. With a deficit ratio of 4.02, the Town of Babylon will need to build 17,938 additional houses to meet its residents’ housing needs by 2040. It can only build 4,466 additional homes with its current zoning restrictions.
