Long Islander Blakeman's fate may hinge on his home turf

Four Octobers ago, polls in the governor's race showed a different picture on Long Island than today. Rep. Lee Zeldin seemed to be closing the gap against Gov. Kathy Hochul. Some of the public surveys at this point in the race accurately suggested what the outcome would be. Statewide, Hochul won the election by little more than six points — 53.1%-46.7%.

To finish strong, Zeldin won Nassau County 55.2%-44.8% and his home county of Suffolk by almost 17 points, 58.4%-41.6%. That convincing performance on home turf partially offset Hochul's 70% win across New York City. Upstate, Zeldin won about 55%. In all, it was the best showing for a GOP candidate for governor since Gov. George Pataki's heyday.

But right now, as another governor's election goes down to the wire, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and incumbent Hochul are running too close for GOP comfort both upstate and downstate while Hochul appears to lead among unaffiliated voters statewide. Nobody can say for certain how this might shift by next Tuesday, yet the rough snapshots are less than flattering for the Long Island candidate. The latest Siena University poll shows Hochul ahead by 14 points statewide.

Long Island has its own political vibe, but a lot of what happens here is shaped by the surrounding national climate. This is a midterm election. That's when a president's incumbent party faces national blowback. Last time the winds blew as expected against President Joe Biden's Democratic Party and the GOP took the House. This time President Donald Trump and his subordinates are feeling the yet-to-be measured headwinds of dissatisfaction in many places. How much control Democrats gain in Washington and other states will form the frame for analyzing New York's results once the ballots are in.

Knowing how these cycles run, Republicans chose Blakeman, from the most densely populated GOP stronghold, over Rep. Elise Stefanik from the North Country. Part of the rationale was that Blakeman's candidacy could flip the LI districts represented by Democrats Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi and hold on to Rep. Mike Lawler's seat north of New York City.

This time around Hochul appears to have better positional advantage than she did four years ago. Having succeeded to the job after Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's resignation, Hochul last time had to fend off a primary challenge from Suozzi, a short-lived candidacy by Attorney General Letitia James, and the resignation under indictment of her first lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, that April.

Now she has experience negotiating budgets with the Democratic-dominated State Legislature and aligned herself with the Democratic-dominated city. This time Hochul's running mate is Adrienne Adams, the former City Council speaker, who had been a primary rival of Zohran Mamdani for mayor last year. The party is rowing together to maintain its ruling trifecta in the state.

"When it comes to President Donald J. Trump, I will always have his back," Blakeman said in August. Trump said he'd work hard to elect Blakeman. But so far, he's passed up chances to echo some of Blakeman's talking points on the governor's race. Trump has continued his surprise cordiality with self-described democratic socialist Mamdani — a political piñata for downstate Republicans.

Even this close to Election Day, forecasting conclusions is a risky business. For Long Island, however, it's worth watching how the offshore winds are blowing — and whether Blakeman can exceed or match Zeldin's performance here.

Columnist Dan Janison's opinions are his own.

By Dan Janison

dan.janison@newsday.comDanJanison

Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.