Does Trump's low approval rating spell trouble even for Garbarino in 2026?

Daily Point

Pat Halpin will need to ride a very big wave to win CD2

As the handicapping for next year’s House races amps up, neither of LI's two Republican incumbents are considered vulnerable — certainly not by either of the major parties' congressional campaign operations or independent political analysts.

In contrast, the Cook Political Report says that of LI's two Democrats, freshman Laura Gillen's CD4 race is a "tossup" and Tom Suozzi's in CD3 is "lean Democrat" as it monitors the relatively few contests where seats can change parties.

President Donald Trump won CD1 and CD2 in 2024.

But as of now, multiple polls show Trump's approval numbers continuing to sharply decline in the first year of his second term. Historically low.

"Anywhere you look, this is the second worst for a president of either party in their second term dating all the way back since the 1940s," said CNN data analyst Harry Enten. Trump's approval rating among independent voters is declining the most rapidly.

If economic worries continue and Trump's actions overseas become more controversial, there is speculation right now that 2026 could bring a big Democratic wave, a wave that Cook Political Report's Amy Walter tweeted could put in play CD2 and other GOP seats Trump won by large margins just last year.

It's that big wave that Pat Halpin, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination in CD2, hopes to catch in his very uphill fight against incumbent Andrew Garbarino who won his seat with 60% of the vote, outrunning Trump by 2 percentage points in the district.

"The wind and the tide have to be running in the right direction, that's all dictated by the guy in the White House," notes Halpin. And that means his strategy is to tie Garbarino to Trump,

"He's a collaborator," said Halpin, "a collaborator with Trump." Garbarino is the most senior member of the LI delegation and a player in House leadership as chairman of the powerful Homeland Security Committee.

Garbarino doesn’t seem worried about next year. “Mamdani-collaborator Pat Halpin is grasping for relevance,” said Annie McCarthy, a spokeswoman for the CD2 representative. “Chairman Garbarino is focused on serving Long Island families and delivering results. He is confident voters will continue to support his record of effective, bipartisan leadership,” she said in an email to The Point.

But with little fundraising — Halpin says he makes calls every day — he has a plan to start holding weekly meetings in every part of the district that stretches from Massapequa to Brookhaven and continue his very homespun YouTube and Instagram videos.

In those videos Halpin attacks Garbarino for failing to combat rising health care costs, the lack of any oversight hearings especially of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, or border czar Tom Homan or Trump's use of the National Guard for crimefighting missions.

Halpin's social media views are small, but the feedback can be humbling. In the health care video he wore an intensely patterned sweater and in the next a plain white collared shirt.

"I did ditch the sweater," said Halpin. "But nobody told me to tuck in the shirt."

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Long ride

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Final Point

Didn’t we just have an election in Hempstead?

After 11 p.m. on election night last month, Nassau County Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs stood before the party gathering at the Garden City Hotel and delivered the bad news that the returns were disappointing across the board. Most of the defeated candidates were gone by then, or at least not front and center.

But Joe Scianablo noticeably stuck around for some time after it was clear that Republican Hempstead Town Supervisor John Ferretti Jr. had defeated him. An upbeat Scianablo mixed and chatted with the small crowd that remained. Another first-time candidate, Nicole Aloise, who'd run a hard, professional race for district attorney, departed with her husband and sleepy children.

Scianablo's situation is unusual, however. He's widely expected to revive the campaign in 2026. That's because Ferretti, whose party leadership installed him in the job in August with the departure of predecessor Donald X. Clavin Jr. for a judgeship, is due to face the voters anew next November — but on a different playing field.

A new state law shifts local races from odd to even years — the same ballot as national and state elections. Jacobs and other Democrats figure that next year's contest for governor and hopes of a midterm backlash against President Donald Trump and the Republican-run Congress will get more of their party members to turn out for their candidates, including Scianablo. Ferretti's upcoming one-year term will be a quirk created by the need to adjust the state election calendar to even years, unless Republicans win a federal challenge to the law.

A recent ruling over how Ferretti got to be basically a three-month incumbent in the supervisor's race shows that the Ferretti-Scianablo rivalry still boils.

After Ferretti was installed in the job in August, Scianablo successfully sued town officials. State Supreme Court Justice Gary Carlton found that town officials violated the state's Open Meetings Law. The town board's quickie vote — to have Ferretti succeed Clavin's sudden vacancy — occurred without the required advance public notice on the meeting agenda. In response to the lawsuit, the town board voted 4-0 to reappoint Ferretti on Sept. 16, and that action was deemed legal.

Until last week, however, Scianablo was still pressing the court for a contempt ruling stemming from that first slippery vote. Officials, including Ferretti, had not appeared as ordered in subpoenas involving the open-meetings case. They attributed this to lawyers telling them they did not have to appear and that a stay would be in effect.

Last week, Carlton denied the motion for a contempt ruling, saying "Scianablo was able to prove his case despite defendant's failure to comply with the subpoena." But along the way, Carlton said that the conduct Ferretti and his allies "attribute to their counsel is disturbing to this court."

Reached for comment on Monday, Scianablo told The Point: "When a judge describes the conduct of your officials and their attorneys as 'disturbing,' it's a clear warning sign. Since John Ferretti took office, we've seen lawsuits, an illegal appointment, a contempt hearing, and now, sharp criticism from the judge aimed at the very lawyers who are supposed to safeguard taxpayers. If this is the leadership of America's largest township, residents should be deeply concerned."

The rematch has already begun.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

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