The Mets, the Reds and the National League wild-card race
Tyler Stephenson of the Cincinnati Reds is late with the tag as Juan Soto of the Mets scores during the eighth inning at Citi Field. Credit: Jim McIsaac
When the 2025 schedule came out, it didn’t seem likely that the Sept. 5-7 three-game Mets series in Cincinnati would be one you’d have to circle.
But recent developments might make that Cincy showdown series must-see TV.
The Mets, losers of seven in a row and 11 of 12, went into their Monday off-day with their postseason prospects on the precipice of disaster.
Once holders of a 5 ½-game lead in the NL East, the Mets can barely see the Phillies atop the division. Philadelphia went into Monday leading the Mets by 5½ games.
Ah, but there is always the safety of the three wild-cards for a struggling but otherwise postseason-hungry team, right? And once you’re in, anything can happen in October.
The Mets went into Monday with a 1½-game lead over the Reds for the third and final wild-card spot.
What would have seemed unthinkable a few months ago is now a reality the Mets have to consider: That they might miss the postseason altogether.
“We haven’t played well for quite a bit,” manager Carlos Mendoza said after Sunday’s walk-off 7-6 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee. “That’s what happens. We can’t be looking at the standings. We’ve got to start getting the job done. It’s that simple. You can’t sit here looking back. There’s no looking back. We’ve got to get the job done. And we will. We’ll turn it around.”
You would have figured the best argument for the Mets to turn it around is their talent, and their payroll, and the fact that they turned it around last season and had a glorious September and October.
But that was the 2024 Mets. The best argument for the 2025 Mets might not be their strength but the unexpected weakness of the rest of the National League.
Remember at the start of the season when the NL was thought to be the stronger league? It might be at the top, but going into Monday the only legitimate challengers the Mets will face down the stretch for that final wild-card spot are the Reds, and maybe the Giants and Cardinals.
Here’s the thing: The Mets have deadline-acquisition relievers in their bullpen from the Giants (Tyler Rogers) and Cardinals (Ryan Helsley). San Francisco and St. Louis decided not to go for it, so those teams’ continued presence in the wild-card standings is more a function of being around .500 rather than actually putting the pedal to the metal to make the postseason.
The Reds are a different story. They are an interesting collection of young players, led by super talented but erratic shortstop Elly De La Cruz. They have a Hall of Fame-worthy manager in Terry Francona, who by himself could be worth a win or two down the stretch.
The Reds made modest deals around the deadline, picking up third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes from the Pirates, former Yankees infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar from the A’s and pitcher Zack Littell from the Rays.
“I liked our team from April,” Francona said after the deadline. “We know we’re not the ’27 Yankees. That doesn’t mean we don’t like going out there and competing with the group we have.”
Said Reds pitcher Nick Martinez: “I like our chances. We’ve added some really good ballplayers. It’s exciting. Everyone in here is working hard to play in October. And knowing that our front office has that same mindset should give us all a big boost of confidence and a lot of energy to finish strong.”
Time will tell if the Reds are really the team the Mets will have to compete with for a postseason spot.
After Sunday’s latest gut-punch Mets loss, in which the Brewers rallied from a 5-0 deficit and won on Isaac Collins’ leadoff homer in the ninth off Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo said: “That's playoff baseball. That's what it’s going to be from here on out.”
Nimmo, ever the optimist, disputed the notion that the Mets are watching the division slip away and will have to settle for a wild card.
“I don't think the division is slipping away,” he said. “We've known this team specifically to go on runs, so we can easily rattle off a winning streak, especially with people we've got here. But it's going to take, obviously, turning it around.”
Going into Monday, FanGraphs.com had the Mets with a 77.5% chance to make the playoffs. Baseball-reference.com had them at 55.6%.
Ya Gotta Believe, right?
Anthony Rieber covers baseball, as well as the NFL, NBA and NHL. He has worked at Newsday since Aug. 31, 1998, and has been in his current position since July 5, 2004.
