David Lennon: Yankees suffer crushing blow with diagnosis that Aaron Judge has rib stress fracture
Yankees’ Aaron Judge looks on after his team’s 2-1 win against the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on Thursday. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
The Yankees earned their first win since Aaron Judge disappeared with a puzzling shoulder ailment by beating the Guardians, 2-1, on Thursday in the Bronx.
They still dropped two of three, however, while Judge hopped between MRI tubes, X-ray machines and CT scans this week. By late Thursday night, the mystery was solved, but figuring out how to win without their hurting captain is going to be a lingering problem for the Yankees. Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side.
The immediate outlook? He will be down for four to six weeks before he goes through another round of imaging tests to “determine the level of healing and appropriate next steps,” according to the team.
In other words, there is no definitive timetable for Judge’s return, other than the Yankees’ statement that he is expected back at some point this season.
Going by the team’s estimate, the best-case scenario would appear to be somewhere around mid-to-late August, given the need to ramp up baseball activity again followed by a rehab assignment.
It’s a devastating blow, obviously, but it still is better than season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, which also seemed to be on the table after Judge consulted with Dr. Gregory J. Pearl, a Dallas-based vascular surgeon who specializes in that condition.
Earlier Thursday, the Yankees appeared to be on edge about Judge’s situation, so by then it was just a matter of determining the severity. To that point, the only information about his injury were the vague details provided earlier in the week by manager Aaron Boone, who said Judge was bothered by shoulder “soreness” that had become a “nagging” issue in a “unique spot.” Mostly, the discomfort impacted Judge trying to swing a bat, not throwing a baseball.
The fact that Boone got testy with the media after Thursday’s game — despite being asked standard questions about Judge’s latest exams — suggested that the Yankees were nervous about the status of their three-time MVP.
For good reason. The record shows the Yankees, no matter the year, are a losing team when Judge misses time because of injury.
On Thursday, they were a Ryan McMahon RBI single away from potentially getting swept at home by the Guardians. Last season, when Judge was out 10 games because of a flexor strain in his right elbow, they went 4-6.
In 2023, Judge’s crash into the wall at Dodger Stadium flipped the Yankees’ season. They were 10 games over .500 (35-25) when he suffered a sprained big toe, then went 19-23 with him on the IL, ultimately sliding to an 82-80 finish that left them short of a playoff berth.
Subtract Judge from the Yankees and they’re not the Yankees anymore. Simple as that. Their $340 million roster becomes a Ferrari chassis with a Honda engine. Same pinstripes, but without the horsepower.
“Best hitter in the sport,” Boone said. “And obviously what he means to us, so there’s a void there. But we also have really good players that can pick it up too. Love the way we played the game today. You’re not replacing Aaron Judge, though.”
Thursday’s victory over Cleveland provided a glimpse of what a post-Judge season would look like. The Yankees got a solid performance from Carlos Rodon, who allowed two hits and one run in seven innings, and manufactured just enough offense to squeeze past the Guardians, an $86 million middleweight from the soft AL Central.
That meant relying on a double-steal by Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger in the fourth inning to set up Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s tying sacrifice fly. In the seventh, Chisholm drew a one-out walk, stole second and raced to third on a wild pitch before scoring the go-ahead run on McMahon’s single to rightfield.
Swiping bases is nothing new for the Yankees. They lead the American League with 61, which is the fourth-highest total in the majors. But their identity is tied to the long ball, and with Judge out, they are going to drop from the top spot in homer production. They remained at 89 after four singles and one double in Thursday’s victory.
“It kind of sucks not having a three-time MVP in your lineup, know what I mean?” Chisholm said. “But at the same time we know we can’t use it as an excuse out there. We’re all baseball players and we got to go out there and win a game.”
But none of them are Judge, and the job becomes exponentially more difficult minus the captain. In some ways, they already were getting by without MVP-caliber Judge, as he had only one homer in his last 18 games and was hitting .206 with a .613 OPS in that span. Those numbers alone suggest he was not feeling like himself.
After a week of optimism, with Gerrit Cole’s triumphant return, Giancarlo Stanton on the horizon and Max Fried eventually on deck to bolster a super-rotation, this serious injury to Judge suddenly changes everything about the Yankees.
“I wouldn’t say there’s a black cloud, but we’re obviously all pulling for really good news,” McMahon said after Thursday’s game. “You really miss a player like that. Not only out on the field, but in the clubhouse and in the dugout, different things like that, from a leadership standpoint. So fingers crossed.’’
The Yankees didn’t get lucky this time. Maybe they dodged a bullet on the thoracic outlet syndrome scare, but losing Judge long-term is going to be a major obstacle to winning the AL East — and October is no guarantee now either.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
