David Lennon: With trade deadline on horizon, Mets' performance will determine potential value for players
Freddy Peralta #51 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field on June 9, 2026. Credit: Jim McIsaac
The 2026 Mets were built to win the World Series. It’s why owner Steve Cohen agreed to invest $380 million in this year’s roster and president of baseball operations David Stearns chose to drastically alter the competitive formula at Citi Field.
There was a secondary feature of this team’s blueprint, however. Sort of a Flushing fail-safe. If the Mets did not perform up to their lofty expectations, Stearns — perhaps aided by Cohen’s financial largesse — could flip a number of players before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
That’s the benefit of expiring contracts and short-term deals, otherwise known as every GM’s best friends, especially when the calendar approaches July.
As of this weekend, it’s fair to say the Mets were trending more toward a midsummer fire sale than playing meaningful games in September (trademark: Fred Wilpon) — but there’s been a developing speed bump to Stearns’ presumptive sell-off strategy.
The Mets’ most bankable trade chips either have contributed to the team’s demise with subpar performances or suffered injuries that are likely to tarnish their market value. In other words, if the Mets don’t rally back into contention — not impossible, given the weak NL wild-card race — Stearns is looking at a lose-lose scenario without the ability to cash out of his bad bets.
We’ll get to those names in a minute. But first some quick calculus. After Friday’s 7-5 victory over Atlanta, the Mets were seven games under .500 (31-38) and 4 1⁄2 games out of the third wild-card position (let’s concede the division with the deficit at 14). Carlos Mendoza & Co. also were 21-17 in their previous 38 games, so they definitely were showing improvement.
FanGraphs puts the Mets’ chances at making the playoffs at 22.5% (the ninth-best odds in the NL understandably make them a long shot). And if you consider that the Reds squeezed past them (on a tiebreaker) for the third wild card last season with a paltry 83 wins, the Mets would need to go 52-41 (.559) in their final 93 games just to get to those 83 wins again.
Further complicating that scenario? The Mets have the second-toughest schedule the rest of the way; their opponents have a .534 winning percentage (according to Tankathon.com) while the Reds are first at .535. On top of that, the Mets will play 30 of their next 39 games against the Phillies (nine), Atlanta (eight), Dodgers (three), Brewers (three), Cubs (four) and Blue Jays (three). That stretch concludes with a four-game visit by the Marlins that leads right to the trade deadline.
That grueling stretch should provide Stearns all of the intel he needs to plot the course ahead, which is why he’s still very much in the hedging phase for this current group. On Friday, at his once-per-homestand media briefing, he insisted that a turnaround remains possible, but he was realistic as well.
“We’ve got to prove that things are going to change,” Stearns said. “There’s no question we’ve played better since April. But we still haven’t played consistent enough to get ourselves out of a hole. We’re very aware of that. We have to prove it. I continue to believe that we have people in the clubhouse who are capable of doing this.”
Some of those people in question are the same candidates Stearns would prefer to trade, most notably Freddy Peralta, who will be due only another $2.7 million at the deadline before becoming a free agent at the end of this season.
A year ago, Peralta did the Brewers a huge favor by finishing fifth in the NL Cy Young Award voting, a nice little value bump on his way out the door.
Stearns figured he traded for a bona fide ace in Peralta. Instead, he’s had buyer’s remorse. Peralta has been reliable, making 14 starts, but he’s pitched to a 4.04 ERA and averaged 5.57 innings. Also, his 1.32 WHIP is the 13th highest among the 59 qualified starting pitchers.
On Tuesday, the Cardinals raked Peralta for six runs in six innings in a 7-0 Mets loss, leaving the team 7-7 in his starts. If Peralta continues to trend downward, any potential return obviously will plummet, too.
“Not good right now,” Peralta said. “Talking about the numbers, at the end of the day, is all that matters. But I’ve been in this situation before. The good thing is that I’m healthy and I have like 18, 19 more games in front of me. I just have to keep competing. At the end of the day, my numbers are going to be there. That’s it.”
Another bad break for Stearns on the trade front — literally — is Clay Holmes’ fractured fibula, which was cracked by Spencer Jones’ 111-mph line drive during the Subway Series in May. Not only has the injury to Holmes, the staff’s de facto ace, been a devastating blow to the Mets’ rebound hopes — the rotation’s 5.29 ERA is the fifth-worst in the majors without him — but he’s not expected back until early August, likely after the deadline.
Even without a post-injury audition, Holmes certainly is worth the risk for a contender. He had a 2.39 ERA and was averaging nearly six innings (5.85) in his nine starts. Also, Holmes will have only $4.3 million left on his contract at the deadline, and he’s pretty much guaranteed to turn down his $12 million player option for 2027 to become a free agent. As valuable as he had been, coming back from a broken leg adds a layer of uncertainty for suitors, thus diminishing the return.
It seems crazy now, but Luis Robert Jr. had the potential to be flipped if Stearns got the bounce-back season he was looking for when he made that late January trade with the White Sox. Robert is making $20 million this season — with a $20 million option for 2027 — so if he had turned back the clock to his 2023 All-Star campaign (38 homers, .857 OPS) in a non-contending effort by the Mets, he would have been in demand in the final two months.
Of course, the Mets probably wouldn’t be in this predicament if Robert were healthy and productive. To this point, he’s been neither; he was hitting .224 with two homers and a .656 OPS in 24 games before landing on the IL with a lumbar spine disc herniation in late April.
Robert said this past week that he is improving and expects to be back this season, but rookie A.J. Ewing already has made him expendable — and a costly drag on the roster.
“Robert is progressing,” Stearns said. “We don’t have a time frame on him. I do think he is feeling a lot more positive about where he is right now and the fact that we’re getting closer to complete baseball activities is definitely a positive.”
As far as the big-ticket items go, even Bo Bichette loomed as a possible trade chip, considering that his three-year, $126 million contract has an opt-out after this season as well as the next.
Bichette still carries a $42 million price tag for this year, so his performance would have to be MVP-caliber for other teams to stomach taking on two months of that, and it’s been a disappointing Flushing debut for him to this point.
Bichette delivered his biggest Mets moment to date Friday night with a pair of homers in consecutive at-bats, including a tiebreaking grand slam. He also matched a career high with six RBIs and was hitting .375 (12-for-32) with a 1.134 OPS in his last eight games.
Bichette’s opt-out-heavy contract made him a Flushing mercenary from the jump, but nothing is better motivation than another bite at free agency.
Stearns does have some valuable items on his lower shelf such as relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter, both pending free agents. Luke Weaver has pitched great, but he’s signed through 2027 with about $17 million left on his contract. Devin Williams is showing flashes of being his old Airbender self with a 14.3 K/9 rate, but he’s virtually unmovable on his newly minted three-year, $51 million deal.
For now, Stearns is in wait-and-see mode.
With Francisco Lindor anticipated back in the lineup for the final week of June, the Mets’ offense could see a resurgence that improves their toehold in what is shaping up to be an arduous wild-card climb.
If not, Stearns will try to turn Citi Field into just another one of the chop shops that line Seaver Way — but maybe getting only pennies on the dollar for some parts of his expensive roster.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
