Dave Lennon: Remains to be seen if Aaron Judge will give Yankees needed push for World Series run
Yankees' Aaron Judge runs off the field after the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
Aaron Judge emerged from the dugout at 4:40 p.m. Tuesday, trotting between two rows of waiting photographers en route to batting practice. With only a few hundred fans in the building by then, the welcome-back reception was enthusiastic but lacking in decibels.
For more than three months, the $365-million question surrounding the Yankees involved Judge’s return date. Now that it’s been answered, we’re onto the next-biggest one, which is whether or not Aaron Boone & Co. have a legitimate shot to the win the World Series.
Judge plays a major role in that, obviously. And what he does over the two-plus weeks left in the regular season is going to render the verdict, because the Yankees haven’t convinced anyone they’re championship material if Judge isn’t doing his three-time MVP stuff. Even that’s a stretch, when you consider the Yankees have made exactly one trip to the World Series despite having the slugger Boone referred to again Tuesday as the “best hitter in the world” for the past decade.
Sure the American League has been historically weak overall, but thanks to MLB’s expanded-playoff system, the Yankees currently are lined up to face an October gauntlet of their East division nightmare fuel: the perpetually-irritating rival Red Sox in the wild-card round followed by the No. 1 seed Rays for the Division Series. It’s hardly fair that the Yankees, who presumably will hang for the AL’s second-best record, should be rewarded with a “Bracket of Death” while the White Sox and two barely .500 teams get to duke it out for a ticket to the ALCS.
And that’s the easy part. The NL rep will likely be more formidable, with the back-to-back champion Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs and Atlanta all sharpened by the higher competition level of the senior circuit this season. Plus, the Yankees are 29-30 against teams .500 or better, 17-21 in one-run games and 4-10 in extra innings, not favorable indicators when things get tight.
Cleary, Judge changes the equation dramatically. Or at least a fully-functioning captain, and no one can say with any degree of confidence -- Judge included -- that he’ll perform up to his MVP standards in short order. On Tuesday night, Judge struck out on five pitches in his first at-bat, whiffing on a 93-mph fastball, then flied out to right-centerfield leading off the fourth. Judge drew some excited gasps on contact, but the 95-mph fly ball died just short of the warning track, a distance of 350 feet.
If Judge needs these remaining games as a glorified Grapefruit League tune-up, where is that going to leave the Yankees as far as a last-ditch attempt at hunting down the Rays or holding off the Red Sox? But playoff positioning is less of a priority at this stage than getting Judge in optimal shape for October. Boone suggested as much before Tuesday night’s series opener against the Rockies in laying out his usage plan going forward -- mindful of his innings and rest without a rehab assignment to prep -- but that’s going to be a fine line to walk with plenty still at stake in September.
Keeping Judge upright, however, is directly linked to preserving the Yankees’ hopes of snapping their 16-year title drought. With Judge on the shelf for 99 days, the Yankees were six games over .500 (45-39) and their .536 winning percentage since June 1 was tied with Atlanta for the eighth-best in the majors during that span (the Marlins even had more win during that stretch).
“We hung in there,” Boone said Tuesday afternoon. “We’ve had stretches where it’s been a real struggle for us offensively this year. I feel like we’ve started to really get better over the last couple weeks in that area. You add [Judge], it’s not only him and what he brings offensively, but there is an effect around him in netting better opportunities, better at-bats for everyone.”
That’s indisputable. Since Judge went down, the Yankees have MLB’s second-worst batting average (.227) -- a few ticks above the adrift Mariners (.225) -- their 4.06 runs per game ranked 26th overall and .681 OPS sat at 27th. Judge could reverse that trend single-handedly with one of his typical weeks, but based on him hustling through the rehab process -- and all the time he’s missed -- signs point to that not happening for a little while.
Minus Judge, the Yankees leaned on their pitching staff to be the compass through that run-starved wilderness, but that eventually takes a toll as well. With the Yankees playing October-intensity games for what seems like months now, just to keep the Rays within arm’s reach, the bullpen has dealt with unusual strain while the rotation has a few yellow flags Boone needs to be mindful of.
One of those popped up Sunday when Gerrit Cole, in start No. 19 coming off Tommy John surgery, surrendered home runs to the first three Padres he faced in the eventual 4-3 loss at Petco Park. Max Fried remains on a pitch count as he’s returning from a second-bout with an elbow bone bruise. Tuesday’s starter Cam Schlittler still is performing like the AL Cy Young favorite, but at 171 2/3 innings, his workload jump is becoming a concern as well.
As Boone mentioned, the Yankees have survived without Judge. Now that he’s back, we’ll know by the end of September if they’re truly a World Series favorite again -- or just hanging on for October, with Judge merely along for the ride.
“His presence is very real,” Boone said.
Judge’s impact, however, remains to be seen.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
