David Lennon: As MLB trade deadline nears, Mets' Clay Holmes likely on his way out
Mets pitcher Clay Holmes looks on from the dugout during against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field on Saturday. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
The Mets would have us believe that Clay Holmes’ final start as a member of the organization will be Sunday afternoon for the team’s High-A affiliate in Brooklyn.
So why Coney Island and not Citi Field?
Great question. Holmes was curious about that, too. Then again, it would make more sense for me to pitch for the Cyclones on Sunday than Holmes, if anyone is thinking logically about this.
Holmes shouldn’t be on a mound for a competitive game anywhere in the five boroughs before Monday’s 6 p.m. trade deadline, given that the next meaningful pitch he throws won’t be for the Mets.
He has nothing left to prove as he comes back from a 2 1⁄2- month rehab from a fractured fibula. He’s the team’s most valuable trade chip, and it’s pointless to put him at risk when a deal could be struck at any moment.
With so many rotation-hungry suitors out there, Holmes is among the most coveted options, arguably at the tier right below Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ reigning back-to-back Cy Young Award winner.
So as a public service, I asked Holmes before Saturday’s 6-2 loss to the Marlins how he felt now compared with mid-May, when the Mets’ de facto ace was at the height of his powers with a 2.39 ERA, chewing up innings at nearly six per start. That is, until the Yankees’ Spencer Jones smashed a 111-mph line drive off his right shin during the Subway Series.
“I feel good,” Holmes said. “The sinker feels like it always has, and yeah, I feel pretty normal right now.”
Just about every team searching for a starter is checking in on Holmes, a group that includes the Dodgers, Rays, Phillies, Brewers, Padres, Rangers and Atlanta, to name a handful.
The Yankees apparently are not pursuing a reunion with their former closer, according to a source, despite Holmes’ flexibility as a potential swingman between the rotation and bullpen — a bonus feature for the stretch run into October.
As for Holmes’ recovery, that shouldn’t be a concern. Mending a broken bone is a straightforward process — unlike torn muscles or ligaments — and this was a lower-half injury, not anything involving elbows or shoulders.
Holmes already has logged a pair of rehab starts and pushed to 59 pitches in four scoreless innings in Tuesday’s outing at Class A St. Lucie. The next milestone is 70 to 75 pitches, and Holmes presumed those would come Sunday at the major-league level, either for the Mets or a contending club.
“I’m more than ready to pitch in the big leagues, if I was the one making the decision,” he said. “But there’s just a lot of factors, and I respect that.”
That should be all the Mets’ trade partners need to hear.
As for bumping Holmes to Brooklyn, that came off as more of a stalling tactic as president of baseball operations David Stearns works to get a deal done — and he is under immense public pressure to score big on these trades.
Even interim manager Andy Green seemed to doubt that Holmes actually would be starting Sunday for the Cyclones.
“This could change at the drop of a hat as the situation changes,” Green said before Saturday’s game. “But at this point in time, that’s our expectation.”
Green was forced to carry out the same charade on the eve of Freddy Peralta’s scheduled Friday start, only to have him scratched a matter of hours before he was to take the mound. The Mets are facing the same scenario with Holmes.
“There’s obviously discussions surrounding Clay,” Green said. “We’re not at a point where we feel like it’s necessary to shut him down, but we do feel like there’s a lot of interest across the industry right now, and we’ll see where it goes.”
Holmes and Peralta can be advertised as difference-making rentals. It’s just a matter of Stearns holding out for his asking price, and if last season is any indication, a top-100 prospect for each shouldn’t be out of the question.
The Dodgers traded Dustin May a year ago at the deadline and got a pair of outfield prospects from the Red Sox in return, including James Tibbs III, who is ranked No. 89 by MLB Pipeline.
The Guardians sent Shane Bieber — fresh off rehab from Tommy John surgery — to the Blue Jays and got back Toronto’s No. 5 prospect, righthander Khal Stephen, who now is 10th on Cleveland’s list.
One interesting comp for Holmes is Merrill Kelly, whom the Diamondbacks traded to the Rangers for three minor-league pitchers at last season’s deadline before re-signing Kelly to a two-year, $40 million contract this past offseason.
Holmes is almost guaranteed to opt out of the $12 million he’s due for next season, making him a free agent, and the brief flirtation he recently had with the Mets about a possible extension fizzled quickly. Still, Holmes left open the possibility of re-signing with the Mets after he’s traded.
“My feelings haven’t changed about the Mets, and so whatever happens here, I still feel the same way,” he said. “There’s just a level of uncertainty with things where we’re at, so it’s hard to really predict what’s going to happen at the end of the year.”
As of Saturday, the Mets had made two trades. The first was sending David Peterson to the Cubs on June 25 for first baseman/DH Cole Mathis, Chicago’s No. 13 prospect.
What should be encouraging for Peralta suitors is that Peterson has rebounded for a 1.52 ERA over his last four starts for the Cubs, giving up two runs (one earned) with no walks and eight strikeouts in 6 1⁄3 innings against the Yankees on Saturday night.
The other was Thursday’s late-night swap that sent A.J. Minter to the Twins for minor-league infield prospects Billy Amick and Bruin Agbayani, the son of former Mets outfielder Benny Agbayani.
Count on the Mets making at least five more deals before Monday’s deadline; Peralta, Holmes, Brooks Raley, Luke Weaver and Tyrone Taylor are near-locks to be traded. Luis Robert Jr. and Huascar Brazoban also could be moved, making these last 48 hours a frenzied time in Flushing.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
