David Lennon: How my preseason MLB awards predictions look at the midway point of the season
Astros' Yordan Alvarez circles the bases after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Texas Rangers on Saturday in Arlington, TX. Credit: AP/LM Otero
As the doomsday clock ticks down, with MLB’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire on Dec. 1, the PR campaigns for both sides are in full swing. Taking a look at the playoff contenders midseason, however, doesn’t really equate to a victory for either side, with baseball showing its typical split between the big-money bullies and small-market hustlers.
When it comes to economic disparity, the owners have their usual culprits in defending a salary cap. The Dodgers, again MLB’s top payroll team at $407 million, possessed the sport’s best record (61-33) through Thursday and had a 14 1/2-game lead in the NL West. LA also remains the heavy favorite to win a third consecutive World Series, last done by the Yankees from 1998-2000.
A quick glance at the playoff brackets, if the season ended Thursday, revealed that five of the 12 playoff teams were among the top 10 spenders: Dodgers, Yankees (No. 3), Phillies (5), Atlanta (6) and Cubs (8).
No surprise there, and certainly fuel for the owners’ argument. The flip side, however, is just as legitimate. The Rays stood as the AL’s top seed, despite a $108 million payroll that ranks as the third-lowest in the majors. Right behind them? The White Sox, at $110 million — or roughly $250 million below the Yankees, who check in at the No. 3 seed. The Guardians also currently qualify for October, despite having the second-lowest payroll ($101M).
Over in the NL, there’s more small-market madness, as the Brewers ($145M) are the No. 2 seed. Perhaps most stunning? The penny-pinching Marlins — MLB’s perennial bottom feeders when it comes to payroll, and not even at triple-digits this year ($85M) — had a three-game edge for the third wild-card spot.
Going by those midseason results, the Players Association would maintain the sport’s economic system doesn’t need a salary cap to maintain parity — plenty of teams are doing just fine against the bigger-budget juggernauts. But let’s see how the second half plays out and whether or not these thrifty clubs cannot only stay in contention, but win in October. Then both the owners and players will spin that data to make their own cases this winter.
In the meantime, let’s hand out some midseason awards, shall we? As usual, for transparency’s sake, I’ve included my preseason predictions. Enjoy the All-Star break.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Have to admit, I’m not too far off with my Bobby Witt Jr. prediction. The Royals’ shortstop is the AL’s leader in fWAR (4.8) by a large margin based on his worth at a premium position. But when it comes to value relative to team, Alvarez’s plate dominance has almost single-handedly revived the Astros’ playoff hopes with a performance that takes the top spot in nearly all the key categories — home runs (29), RBIs (67), slugging (.614) and on-base percentage (.416). In other words, Alvarez is doing what Aaron Judge usually does, taking advantage with the Yankees’ captain on the shelf. Yes, Alvarez is a DH, but since he’s vastly outperforming the guys with gloves, he gets the nod here.
Preseason: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
CY YOUNG: Cam Schlittler, Yankees
If the Yankees want to guarantee more Schlittler brilliance in the second half — or dare I say even kick it up a notch — they should lobby the baseball media to denigrate their sophomore ace and make sure to email him the links. Schlittler seems to get stronger the angrier he gets — MLB’s pinstriped Hulk — and woe is the opponent who gets him with a chip on his shoulder. Schlitter, who features the best three-fastball mix in the game, entered the break leading the AL in ERA (2.01), WHIP (0.93) and K/BB ratio (6.24). He was second in opponents batting average (.199), third in strikeout percentage (29.6) and tied for first in starts (19).
Preseason: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Will Venable, White Sox
While it’s difficult to determine how much impact a manager has in the 21st century, we do know this much about what’s happening on the South Side. The White Sox were coming off three straight seasons of 100-plus losses, including 121 in 2024, and two consecutive last-place finishes in the dreadful AL Central. The fact that Venable is piloting a ’26 team that is atop the division and currently over .500 means he’s doing ground-breaking work with this downtrodden franchise, whether it’s maneuvering a middle-of-the-pack pitching staff (4.23) or handling the third-youngest roster (27.1 years average) in the majors.
Preseason: John Schneider, Blue Jays
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers
As much as I want to give myself a midseason 'W' and go with Kazuma Okamoto — he’s certainly deserving with an AL rookie-best 21 homers and 59 RBIs — McGonigle has turned in the superior all-around performance, both at the plate and splitting time between shortstop and third base. As a result, McGonigle leads all MLB rookies with a 3.9 fWAR and his .818 OPS is second only to Munetaka Murakami (.938), who missed 35 games with a hamstring strain. He’s also tops in runs (57), is tied for the lowest strikeout rate (13.5%) and has the second-most stolen bases (11).
Preseason: Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
As long as Ohtani continues to shine as a two-way player, it’s impossible to imagine someone else swiping the trophy from him, and he’s now on track to join Barry Bonds as the only players in MLB history to win four straight MVP awards. Ohtani was limited on the mound last season in returning from elbow surgery, but this year is pitching like a Cy Young candidate (8-2, 1.79 ERA in 14 starts) — just not with enough innings yet to qualify for the league leaders. His 20 homers are a little light, but he’s hitting .290 and ranks fourth in OPS (.939). One thing to keep an eye on — the lingering knee issue that scratched Ohtani from his final first-half start and will prevent him from attending this week’s All-Star Game.
Preseason: Juan Soto, Mets
CY YOUNG: Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers
It’s no wonder that Misiorowski is virtually unhittable this season — the baseball is a blur coming out of his hand. He’s thrown the fastest pitch ever recorded in the Statcast era (since 2008) at 105.5 mph and keeps breaking his own records, the latest mark being set when he rifled 45 pitches at 101-mph or higher in a June game against the Rockies. That explains why he’s tops in the majors in ERA (1.62), WHIP (0.76), opponents batting average (.147) and strikeout percentage (39.6). Misiorowski is doing what people thought was physically impossible, and he’s been keeping it up for a total of 111 innings over 18 starts. At that velocity, it’s a speed and pace no else can match.
Preseason: Paul Skenes, Pirates
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Don Mattingly, Phillies
Well, I’ll have to take the 'L' on Carlos Mendoza, since his Mets managerial career ended on June 26. And now, oddly enough, the front-runner for this award is Mattingly, who took over when Rob Thomson was axed by the Phillies on April 28. The timing was brilliant. Since Mattingly took over, the Phillies have MLB’s second-best record (43-23) behind the Brewers, and at 52-42, not only do they hold the second wild card, but trail division-leading Atlanta by only three games. Mattingly narrowly missed getting his first World Series ring as bench coach for the Blue Jays last year, so how ironic would it be if he finally gets one this season after his unexpected promotion in Philly.
Preseason: Carlos Mendoza, Mets
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals
The Cardinals' fast start has faded some, but don’t blame Wetherholt, who debuted on Opening Day just two years after he was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2024 draft and reportedly agreed Friday on an eight-year, $112.5 million contract extension. Wetherholt, 23, is first among NL rookies with 57 runs scored, second in homers (13) and fourth in on-base percentage (.362). He’s made 83 starts at second base and his 12 defensive runs saved ranks third in the NL, behind only the Dodgers’ Andy Pages (16) and the Giants’ Matt Chapman (15). I may have whiffed on one Met for this award in McLean, but another one could be a serious threat by season’s end as A.J. Ewing is rapidly climbing a number offensive categories.
Preseason: Nolan McLean, Mets
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
