As unlikely as it may seem for Mets, recent sporting events show odds aren't always right
The Mets' Juan Soto reacts after hitting a home run against the Phillies on Thursday in Philadelphia. Credit: AP/Matt Slocum
PHILADELPHIA — The streets of Philadelphia buzzed with barely constrained glee Friday, still reeling from the day before in that giddy way of an elementary school sleepover that’s spilled into the next morning, more fun to be had.
Though this may be a Sixers town, you couldn’t escape the legion of Knicks revelers that vomited out of the 30th Street train station Thursday afternoon. And though it may often be a football town, Friday, it was a futbol town: Fans amassing in parks and sports bars in a panoply of jerseys — Brazil’s canary yellow, Haiti’s deep blue, Australian Socceroos and the Stars and Stripes.
The Mets were idle. Lincoln Financial Field — temporarily renamed Philadelphia Stadium while it hosts World Cup matches — is situated directly across from Citizens Bank Park, and with nearly 70,000 fans expected at the Brazil vs. Haiti match Friday night, and tens of thousands attending nearby watch parties, baseball was at the bottom of the list, as it should be.
But Mets fans can hope the last few days provide their team with a different sort of inspiration. Because it’s not that the Mets need to be “motivated”; that group lives in the dark reality of potentially being labeled the worst team money can buy for two years running. No, it’s that they could benefit from a different flavor of motivation entirely — one this franchise hasn’t tasted since 2024.
As it turns out, sports don’t have to be relentless agony. In the right context, it has the ability to transcend its inherently frivolous nature. And sometimes, shunning premature reports of your demise can be the key to finding a path to survival.
The Mets need all of that and more. The standings are grim, despite having won the last two games against the Reds and Phillies. We’re nearing late June, and they entered Friday five games back in the wild card, with seven teams between them and that final slot. FanGraphs has them at a 21.2% chance of making the playoffs — only six teams in the National League have worse odds.
Little we’ve currently seen indicates they can overcome that. So instead, you can remember that the odds are not always right.
In his speech at the Knicks’ victory parade Thursday, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani underlined the notion that we are humans, not numbers. When the Knicks were down 29 points to the Spurs in Game 4 — when some fans went home and didn’t bother turning the game back on — the odds said the Knicks had a 0.4% chance of coming back to win.
“There is one thing that the pundits just don’t get about this team, what they don’t get about this city: It is in that 0.4% that we go to work,” Mamdani said.
There’s more than that, though. On Monday, we saw the unfathomable — the small West African archipelago of Cape Verde, keyed by 40-year-old goalie Vozinha, kept Spain, a soccer power, to a 0-0 draw; it was their first World Cup appearance. Curacao, the Cup’s smallest nation, scored against juggernaut Germany Sunday, and for 17 glorious minutes, the two were tied. The ensuing German onslaught felt inevitable, but those 17 minutes meant something to a nation that was thrilled even to qualify.
The Mets aren’t the Knicks. They’re certainly not Cape Verde, or even Curacao. But there are lessons everywhere if you take the time to pay attention, and this is the moment to do it. They hope to have Francisco Lindor back in the next homestand. Bo Bichette is heating up. Nolan McLean was excellent in his last start.
Sean Manaea was able to be a productive pitcher Thursday despite not being able to spot his inside fastball and not being able to throw his cutter for a strike (details, right?). “I thought the sweeper was pretty good,” he said with a sheepish smile.
Except that it really was, and what we often forget about Manaea — what he showed in 2024 — is that he knows to work with what he’s got. Thursday, he managed to keep the Mets afloat for 5 1⁄3 innings before they eventually beat the Phillies, 6-4. Add to that, the bullpen is among the best in baseball and Luke Weaver hasn’t allowed a run in his last 18 appearances.
And then there’s the otherworldly run Juan Soto is on. Everyone knows Soto is good, but it can be easy to gloss over when the team is seven games under .500. Thursday marked the 30th multi-homer game of his career, and he’s slashing .300/.398/.582 with a 172 OPS+.
“This is a guy that’s more than capable [of carrying] a team,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “But he’s not trying to do too much. He’s going to take whatever they give him . . . He’s a really good player.”
It’s easy to look at all these things and say that none of it matters — that the Mets are bad (if the standings are anything to go on, they are), and they’ll continue to be bad (it’s certainly possible). But it’s also not Pollyanna-ish to consider the reality of the baseball calendar.
Seasons don’t end in June. NBA Finals games don’t end just because you’re down 29 points. World Cup matches don’t end just because you should be happy to be there.
So let these last few weeks be a lesson — to them, and to us. The clock is ticking, but it’s not at zero yet. And if you’re doing it right, the ride should be half the fun.
Laura Albanese is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. She's been covering MLB since 2014 after starting at Newsday as an intern seven years earlier.
