Gas prices fell — but Long Island inflation rose in June as food, rent and daycare costs surged in NY

Consumer prices in the New York area, including Long Island, rose at a faster pace in June than in May, driven in part by higher costs for child care, housing and groceries, such as meat and eggs.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that its Consumer Price Index for the 25-county region covering parts of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania increased 3.5% in June compared with a year earlier. That year-over-year jump was higher than May’s 3.4% but below April’s 3.9%. The index is a key measure of inflation.

Grocery prices rose 1.8% in June, led by a 4.7% increase in the meat, poultry, fish and eggs category and a 2.9% rise in cereals and baked goods. Those increases, along with rising child care and housing costs, were partially offset by an 11.3% drop in gasoline prices.

On the Long Beach boardwalk, Long Islanders said they’ve noticed relief at the pump — but not in the checkout aisle.

They are still clipping coupons and shopping at multiple stores for groceries to save.

“It takes a lot longer to shop if you want to save,” said Rita Franco, a retired teacher from Oceanside. “I long for the days when I could get everything done at one supermarket.”

Nationwide, consumer prices also rose more quickly in June than in May. The national Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% in June from a year earlier, up from May’s 2.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

LI Economist: Restaurant prices rising, but tourism benefits

Restaurant meals were up moderately in the New York area — 3.1% in June year over year — and that could boost Long Island's tourism industry, said John A. Rizzo, an economist and Stony Brook University professor.

Restaurants, beaches, museums and entertainment venues generate more than $7.5 billion in annual consumer spending across Nassau and Suffolk counties, according to the research firm Tourism Economics.

Rizzo said the latest metro-area inflation data don’t yet show any major price pressure from federal tariffs.

“There is little evidence of any inflationary effects of the tariffs yet,” he said. “But that could change in the coming months.”

Tariffs on Mexican tomatoes expected to raise food costs

That change may be coming soon for items like tomatoes.

On Monday, the United States withdrew from a long-standing trade agreement with Mexico, which means tomatoes imported from that country are now subject to a 17.09% tariff, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced, accusing Mexico of unfair trade practices.

The United States is the top export market for Mexican tomatoes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Long Islanders said they’re already thinking about how tariffs might hit their wallets.

“I read that there’s supposed to be 30% tariffs [on goods from Europe and Mexico] starting next month. That’s got to have an impact,” said Manuel Hernández, 42, an accountant from Freeport, after taking a run in Long Beach.

Tina Ricci, a homemaker from Island Park, said she plans to shop more carefully to avoid Mexican tomatoes and cut back on how often she uses them.

“Yet another thing that’s going to raise my grocery bills,” said Ricci, 43. “Where will it end?”

Fed likely to hold rates steady for now

While tariffs aren’t yet directly reflected in the CPI, they’re showing up in the prices of import-heavy goods such as household appliances, toys and clothing, said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

He added that the latest data is unlikely to spur an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

“The next rate cut [will] occur in December,” Sweet predicted.