Can Bruce Blakeman parlay his reelection victory into a possible bid for NYS governor?

Republican Bruce Blakeman spent a lot of his first term as Nassau County executive unofficially challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul and state Democrats. Now, fresh off a second-term win, he says he may mount a 2026 gubernatorial run. 

But first, political strategists say he'll need to make his case to his own party leaders, and in particular, President Donald Trump. His biggest obstacle has emerged in Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), 41, who's already declared her candidacy, gaining a groundswell of support. That includes the backing of state GOP chairman Ed Cox who's already vowed "there will not be a Republican primary a year from now."

Political experts and insiders say a lot can happen before New York's Republican convention in the spring when the party's delegates from all 62 counties statewide gather to rally behind their nominee. For now, Blakeman, 70, is embarking on a listening tour across the state aimed at gathering support for a possible bid.

A Trump bump

Christopher Malone, associate provost and professor of political science at Farmingdale State College, says Blakeman "might be behind but not very far behind." He said either candidate could be poised to get a nod from Trump.

"Both of them are going to vie for Donald Trump's affection and endorsement," Malone said, referring to Blakeman and Stefanik. "So while Stefanik seems to be the establishment candidate, and has the advantage, at least with someone like Donald Trump because he seems to owe her, he might hang back and see how this plays out."

Stefanik, once a critic of the MAGA movement, is now considered a close ally of Trump's. She was his first cabinet pick after he won in 2024 and was set to be United Nations ambassador until he pulled her nomination in March for fears of losing the GOP's thin majority in the House of Representatives. She represents a right-leaning upstate district and launched to national fame when she led some of the most significant questioning of Ivy League presidents on antisemitism and free speech at a House committee hearing in 2023.   

Blakeman has also maintained a close relationship with Trump and has waded deeper into national "culture war issues" since becoming county executive. He enacted policies such as banning face masks before public health experts recommended toward the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, prohibiting transgender athletes from playing on women's teams on county fields, and creating a volunteer program for civilian gun owners to mobilize in emergency situations. 

In declaring his victory on election night, among Blakeman's first statements to a crowd of supporters at the Coral House in Baldwin included the fact that he had "just gotten off the phone with President Trump and he was delighted." 

"And I said to the president, 'Thank you for all you've done,' " Blakeman said.

 Blakeman's messaging

Blakeman, who brought out nearly 40% of the registered Republicans in his reelection for county executive earlier this month, now needs to persuade the party faithful he will represent their values while drawing on the state's independent voters in a general election next November, political strategists say.

His 12-point win was boosted by independent voter support, which he highlighted to a crowd gathered last week inside the Massapequa VFW, where he launched both his 2021 and 2025 bids for county executive. About 20% of Nassau's independent or unaffiliated voters turned out earlier this month to vote in countywide and local elections, many for Blakeman and the Republican slate. More than half of the total votes in the county were cast in the Town of Hempstead, where Republican voters in odd-year elections tend to turn out in greater numbers. 

Although he told a group of Albany reporters last week he expects to take another two to three weeks to announce an official decision on a run for governor, Blakeman has floated the idea for more than a year. He exponentially increased his margin in his second-term win despite Democrats prevailing nationally, most notably in governor's races in New Jersey, Virginia and in local elections across New York.

"We are a shining light in the rest of the state and the rest of the country," Blakeman said at the Massapequa rally. "Quite frankly, I received a lot of calls from around the state. They wanted to know: What was the message? Can you teach us? Can you show us the way?"

Blakeman's campaign message was heavily focused on public safety and immigration. He touted a U.S. World & News Report designation declaring the county as the safest of its size and the county police department's partnership with federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement to aid in deportations.

Much of that message could win over voters statewide, particularly at a time when Hochul must navigate a new relationship with Zohran Mamdani, the state assemblyman and democratic socialist elected mayor of New York City, political experts say. 

Stefanik, who first took office in 2015, represents a district north of Albany where she was last elected with 62% of the vote. Whether her previous successes would carry over statewide is debatable, according to critics who say she's never won a race in a swing district.

By contrast, Democrats have an enrollment edge over Republicans in Nassau and the fastest-growing voting group are those unaffiliated with a party.

Nassau and Suffolk have a 'weighted influence'

With Blakeman, Long Island Republicans see an opportunity to replicate their recent gains statewide and perhaps hold on to congressional and state legislature seats during a midterm year.

Michael Dawidziak, a political pollster and consultant who primarily works for Republicans, pointed to the 2.2 million voters on Long Island and the influence of Republican leaders on the Island. He said many of the counties upstate, while solidly Republican, are rural and don't have a lot of voters.

He also pointed to the "weighted influence" of Nassau County Republican chairman Joseph Cairo and Suffolk County Republican chairman Jesse Garcia.

"All of the counties have a say but, obviously, the bigger the county, the more influential," Dawidziak said. 

Former Rep. Lee Zeldin paved the way for downstate Republicans in statewide bids in 2022. That year, the entire Republican slate was either from New York City or Long Island. 

With Zeldin at the top of the ticket, Long Island's Republicans took control of four U.S. House seats for the first time since 1994 — the midterm election cycle dubbed the "Republican Revolution."

Then a congressman from Shirley, Zeldin came closer to becoming New York governor than any Republican since George Pataki's election in 1994.

Zeldin now heads the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Former Long Island Rep. Peter King of Seaford said he believes the county executive's job might be better training for running the state. 

"You're dealing day in and day out with  county issues that involve the state. The state and the county are so intertwined when it comes to addressing issues and problems. You're really engaged governmentally in dealing with the state," said King, a Blakeman friend and national security adviser. "Don't get me wrong, Lee ran a great campaign." 

Blakeman suffers from less name recognition than Stefanik, according to a recent poll conducted by J.L. Partners early last week. 

Of the 400 likely Republican primary voters in the state, more than half or 244 said they had "never heard" of Blakeman while nearly the same number of respondents, 243, said they thought "very favorably" of Stefanik. 

Dawidziak, who worked on two of Blakeman's previous campaigns, said candidate name recognition this early in the cycle doesn't mean much.

"If you think the Nassau Republican Party is good at turning out voters when it's not one of their own, wait until it is one of their own," Dawidziak said.

By Candice Ferrette

candice.ferrette@newsday.comcandiceferrette

Candice Ferrette covers Nassau County government and politics on Long Island. She has been a reporter at Newsday since 2011.