Seeking a second term in a swing district, Rep. Laura Gillen keeps distance from party's liberal wing

WASHINGTON — Political control of the U.S. House during Donald Trump’s last two years as president rides partly on whether a freshman Long Island Democrat can distance herself far enough away from many in her own party.

Ranked by nonpartisan handicappers as the most endangered New Yorker heading to the 2026 congressional midterm elections, Nassau County's Laura Gillen is already cooking with a survival recipe — she's voting more conservatively than 99% of her Democratic colleagues in Washington.

Enrolled Democratic voters still outnumber Republicans in Gillen's district, located just outside New York City. But it's been moving more competitively to the right, and swing voters can be election deciders. The congressional seat she holds has flipped in successive elections from blue to red to blue again, leaving a purplish haze.

From her views about immigration and the front-running New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, to her voting patterns as a House freshman, Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) is charting a very deliberate middle-of-the-road course, away from much of her party's base.

"It's clear that Gillen is attempting to separate herself from the national party a bit, particularly on immigration, and she's been quite critical of Mamdani," said Erin Covey, House elections editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

This comes as independent political analysts, including those at Cook, forecast that Gillen is among the 10 most politically endangered House Democrats nationally, their reelection chances each seen as toss-ups. No other New Yorker, including any of the state's Republicans, has their 2026 prospects viewed as being that perilous.

Additionally, both national parties have identified Gillen's district as a key battleground for control of the House chamber, where the GOP now holds a slim majority of seats, 219-213 with three vacancies.

"I’ve never lied about what kind of Democrat I am," Gillen, 56, said in an interview. "I am a moderate Democrat," she underscored, describing herself as one who believes in fiscal responsibility and reaching across the aisle to finally fix immigration and resolve other issues.

Seeking moderate stances

Gillen's 271 votes since arriving at Congress in January spell out a distinct and immediate pedal to the middle, as tracked through UCLA’s Voteview, a nonpartisan, multidimensional scaling of congressional voting.

So far, she ranks as the third-most conservative voter among all 213 House Democrats — "more conservative than 99% of Democrats," the site finds.

Her breaks from her party touch on a range of topics. This month, Gillen and Suozzi were among just 11 Democrats who tiptoed across party lines to join all 215 voting House Republicans to pass a bill increasing the lengths of prison sentences for immigrants convicted of repeatedly entering the United States illegally.

Other vulnerable swing-district Democrats similarly talk about finding middle ground. But Gillen finds herself also chained by geography to the intraparty warfare of the New York City mayoral race.

Gillen, like Suozzi, continues to publicly oppose Mamdani. That aligns with Jay Jacobs, their Nassau County and New York State Democratic chair. But it also is an opportunity for Gillen to project the nerve, even willingness, to be at odds with New York's Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, a growing number of other New York State and city Democrats and other notable party members nationwide who have endorsed Mamdani.

"Long Islanders are already facing a cost-of-living crisis and the last thing they can afford is Zohran Mamdani’s reckless agenda," Gillen said in a statement.

Nassau County GOP chairman Joseph G. Cairo Jr. insists of Gillen: "She can play the game and pretend to be middle of the road." But he adds, "Her act isn't fooling anyone on Long Island."

He jabs that Gillen still sticks with the party on issues that matter most, such as her vote against Trump’s massive One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He also claims her political navigations are not genuine, but that she is simply "mimicking" her more veteran Long Island colleague, Suozzi.

Even as Gillen seeks distance from many in her national party, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries' political arm — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — will be ready "to go to bat for Gillen, every step of the way," spokesperson Riya Vashi said.

Possible challengers

Cairo and other top Nassau County Republicans have not formally embraced a challenger for Gillen next year, though some hope for a rubber match with former GOP congressman Anthony D'Esposito, whom she defeated in 2024 after losing to him two years earlier.

D'Esposito, 43, would not say if he will run, as he awaits Senate confirmation as Trump's choice to be the U.S. Department of Labor's inspector general.

A little-known Republican, Brian Miller, 40, has filed papers to explore a run for Gillen's seat. He works at an assisted living center, has never run for office, but believes he can help lead the country. "I don't know that much about her," he said of Gillen. He's named his committee "It's Miller Time."

Gillen’s steer more rightward can be explained with quick back-of-baseball-card information about the state's Fourth Congressional District.

Even as Democrats there still hold a significant total voter-enrollment edge — more than 70,000, as of February — the area is seeing shifts. Former Democratic President Joe Biden won the district by 14.5 percentage points in 2020, but former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by less than 2 points last year. Meanwhile last year, Trump was able to flip all of Nassau County red for the first time in 20 years.

Gillen's defeat of D’Esposito in a rematch last year, marked by payroll patronage allegations against D'Esposito, was by more than 2 percentage points.

Early track record

With just nine months under her belt as a congresswoman, it is too early to tell what Gillen will accomplish in Washington. Rookie members of Congress face difficulty in registering much immediate impact, particularly in the minority party.

Among her committee assignments, Gillen was able to snag a seat on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a coveted post for a Long Islander, from which she can bring heightened focus to local transit and highway needs, repairing infrastructure and other concerns. She's also proposed six bills of her own, pressed constituent needs in co-sponsoring amendments to other bills, and tried to establish an identity in other ways.

Gillen has been the very definition of "centrist" when comparing the votes of all 432 current members of the GOP-controlled House, UCLA's Voteview shows.

A whopping 49% — or about half the entire chamber — are more liberal-leaning in their votes, while the other 51% is more conservative-leaning.

About next year's election, Gillen said, "I will take my race very seriously." But for now, she said she is building a record in Congress, and "I'm proud to be a bipartisan leader in hyperpartisan times."