After LIRR strike averted, here's what's next

A potential Long Island Rail Road worker strike that could have begun as soon as 12:01 a.m. Thursday will be delayed at least for months after LIRR union leaders requested the Trump administration intervene in contract negotiations on Monday. 

The announcement comes after five unions, representing about half of all LIRR workers, rejected a three-year contract that several other unions accepted. At a news conference in Manhattan on Monday morning, the leaders of the holdout unions announced they have asked or will ask President Donald Trump to appoint a panel to mediate the dispute, which could delay any potential strike until the spring.

"This action does not mean a strike won't happen, but it does mean it won't happen now," Gil Lang, general chairman for the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Trainmen, said at the news conference.

Here's what to know about what could come next.

When could a strike start and how long could it last?

Trump will appoint a Presidential Emergency Board of mediators to consider both sides’ arguments and issue nonbinding recommendations to resolve the dispute.

Union officials said the process would delay a potential strike until mid-January, at the earliest. Additional public hearings, federally mandated "cooling off" periods, and the possibility of a second Presidential Emergency Board  could push that date until mid-May, according to the unions.

If there's no agreement and a strike happens, it’s impossible to say for sure how long it would last.

The last LIRR strike, in 1994, lasted three days until the railroad agreed to certain union demands. Before that, a LIRR strike in 1987 lasted for 11 days, until Congress passed emergency legislation and mediated the dispute.

In 2014, the LIRR came within three days of a strike, but it was called off after an eleventh-hour settlement between union leaders and then-Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

NJ Transit union workers went on strike for three days in May, before reaching an agreement to return to the job.

Does the LIRR have contingency plans in case of a strike?

When a strike still seemed imminent last week, the LIRR announced it would operate buses from just three stations in Nassau and Suffolk into Queens during rush hours, where riders could connect to the subway system.

MTA officials also encouraged commuters to consider NICE Bus routes linking to Flushing and Jamaica, where they could connect to subway lines.

It is unlikely temporary buses from LIRR stations into the city would be able handle more than a small fraction of the commuters from Long Island, said Sam Schwartz, a former New York City traffic commissioner.

"I’d be surprised if the buses handle as many as 10,000 people," said Schwartz. Average daily ridership on the LIRR is over 270,000, a number that counts round-trip travelers twice.

How would a potential LIRR strike affect traffic?

If a strike eventually happens, many would-be LIRR riders may end up driving to work in New York City, experts said.

"Traffic will just be insane," said Robert Sinclair Jr., a spokesman for AAA Northeast.

Schwartz said past strikes led to congestion on roadways into the city, worst along the Long Island Expressway and Grand Central Parkway, and along the Bronx-Queens Expressway leading into the East River bridges and the Queens-Midtown Tunnel.

A strike could also make parking especially difficult to find in the city, Schwartz said.

Is the president required to intervene now that a request has been made?

The Railway Labor Act states that upon request from either party in a commuter railway labor dispute, or from a governor, "the President shall create an emergency board to investigate and report on the dispute."

Samuel Estreicher, a professor of labor law at NYU Law School, said the law is not optional — it obligates the president to move forward with creating an emergency board.

Why have the labor unions been threatening to strike?

While the LIRR’s largest union accepted an earlier deal with the LIRR, the five holdout unions — the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Transportation Communications Union, and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers — are seeking better terms.

The MTA wants the unions to accept a three-year contract with 3% raises in the first and second years, and a 3.5% raise in the third year — the same terms accepted by a majority of represented LIRR workers. But the holdout unions say the 9.5% total wage increase doesn’t keep up with the high cost of living in New York and on Long Island, and effectively amounts to a wage cut. Union leaders on Monday said they've accepted the three-year, 9.5% terms, but want a fourth year at a 6.5% raise.