Long Island nor'easter update: Coastal flooding, strong winds to begin Friday followed by prolonged rainfall

After days of debate about potential storm tracks, the National Weather Service is now certain an early-season nor'easter will impact Long Island this weekend, with strong winds and localized storm surge-related coastal flooding beginning Friday — and "a prolonged period of rainfall" expected to follow and continue straight through to Monday.

As much as 5 inches of rain could blanket Long Island, forecasters said, adding that wind gusts as high as 55 mph are expected Friday, and that the strength and duration of the system will likely down tree limbs and power lines.

Beach erosion also is a key concern for all South Shore ocean beaches, while the timing of the storm to a full moon and astronomic high tides will likely lead to coastal flooding on both the North and South shores.

Expect 'high-level impacts'

The wide range of storm-related concerns has led the weather service to issue a gale warning, coastal flood watch and advisory, wind advisory, storm warning, high surf advisory, small craft advisory, gale warning and a warning about life-threatening rip currents.

Seas of 14 to 19 feet are expected in the Atlantic Ocean from Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to Montauk.

Newsday meteorologist Geoff Bansen said while Long Islanders should not conjure up visions of some of the worst nor'easters in our history, this looming system still has the power to be "a legitimate coastal storm with high-level impacts" from coastal flooding.

"The nor'easter is upon us," he said in an email, "and it is shaping up to be a bad storm."

Forecasts are calling for sustained winds of 20-25 mph — and the resulting wind advisory is in effect from 2 p.m. Friday through 6 a.m. Sunday for Nassau, Suffolk and Queens.

"Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects," the warning read. "Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outage may result." The weather service said high-profile vehicles — trucks and SUVs — will be at risk during travel.

"For Long Island, what we're really looking at is the winds and the coastal flooding," said Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the weather service's Upton bureau, adding that the main impact days figure to be Saturday and Sunday.

While Ramsey said 5 inches of rain could be on the high end of the forecast, he said concerns are the combination of wind and rain, and ground saturation that could increase the threat of downed trees, tree limbs and power lines.

"We also could see isolated incidence of flash flooding," he said.

Meteorologists also said large breaking waves at ocean beaches, some as high as 15 feet in the surf zone, will not only cause an immediate rip current risk, but will create conditions conducive to beach erosion and coastal flooding.

"Widespread flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline, including roads, parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes and businesses with basements near the waterfront" all are likely as a result of winds, tides and storm surge, the weather service said, adding: "Numerous road closures are likely, and vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding will extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays."

The conditions will cause life-threatening rip currents at ocean beaches and localized beach erosion.

Low-lying coastal areas on the North Shore also are at risk for flooding as the result of high tides and storm surge.

How the state is preparing to respond

"With a significant coastal storm starting to impact New York State, we are actively monitoring the track of the storm and any potential impacts,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a statement Friday, adding: ”I urge New Yorkers to stay informed, stay prepared, and closely monitor local weather updates as conditions develop over the weekend.”

State officials said residents should ensure government emergency alerts are enabled on their mobile phones, urging them to sign up for real-time weather and emergency alerts by texting their county or borough name to 333111.

The governor’s office also said that due to high winds, MTA Bridges and Tunnels is implementing a ban on empty tractor-trailers and tandem trucks beginning Saturday at 12:01 a.m. and in effect until 2 a.m. Sunday. Pedestrian walkways on bridges may also be closed if high winds are forecast.

Officials are also urging residents with air travel plans to check with their airlines or consult tracking services regarding potential airport delays.

The state Office of Emergency Management (OEM) is prepared to deploy emergency response assets and supplies as needed, officials said. The governor’s office also said the State Watch Center, New York’s 24/7 alert and warning hub, is monitoring the storm track and statewide impacts closely.

Currently, there are 5,675 workers available statewide to support response, restoration, and repairs. This includes 175 overhead mutual aid contractors secured by Con Edison. Cut and toss crews have also been pre-staged to support debris clearance from possible downed trees.

What is a nor'easter?

Nor'easters are defined as large-scale extratropical cyclones that form in the North Atlantic — and are named for winds that are strongest coming from the Northeast due to the rotation of the storm system.

The typical season for nor'easters runs from November to March, the result in the difference in warm ocean waters and cold air coming south from Canada that leads to their formation. Meteorologists note that while not prime season, nor'easters are not rare in September.

"We've had our fair share of nor'easters in September and October over the years," Ramsey said. "I think it's more that this is kind of the first big coastal storm we've had in a while — and that's it."

High daytime temperatures between Friday and Monday are expected to be in the low-to-mid 60s, with nighttime temperatures in the 50s. Rain is expected to begin sometime after 2 p.m. Friday and continue through Monday.

The East End is expected to see the heaviest rainfall in coming days, while the strongest sustained winds and wind gusts are predicted along the South Shore — also stronger and with higher velocities toward the Twin Forks.

Check back for updates on this developing story.

By John Valenti

john.valenti@newsday.com

John Valenti, a Newsday reporter since 1981, has been honored nationally by the Associated Press, Society of the Silurians and National Headliner Awards for investigative, enterprise and breaking news reporting, as well as column writing. He is the author of “Swee'pea,” about New York playground basketball star Lloyd Daniels. His debut crime novel, “For Nothing Is Hidden,” rooted in 1950s Long Island, was released in October 2025.