Making sense of Trump's about-turn on Ukraine

After many dizzying twists and turns, President Donald Trump seems to have pivoted on Russia and Ukraine yet again. It wasn’t very long ago that he blamed Ukraine for choosing to go to war against an invasion by a much stronger enemy instead of seeking accommodation, berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a "dictator" sponging off American beneficence, and promised to end the war by pushing Ukraine to cede some land to Russia.

On Tuesday, in a bombshell social media post, he derided Russia as a "paper tiger" and asserted that Ukraine could win all of its occupied territory back with help from Europe and NATO. He reiterated these themes in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly. And, in a meeting before the media, he praised Zelenskyy as a "great man."

What’s all this about — and does Trump’s rhetoric augur an actual shift in the administration’s policy?

A common view is that Trump feels humiliated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stalling and broken promises of a peace deal. He knows it makes him look weak — and, ironically, his emphasis on his personal rapport with Putin now makes things worse, since Putin’s deceptions and delay tactics feel like a personal betrayal.

But it’s also likely that Trump finally realizes something numerous analysts have been saying for a while: that things are not going very well for Russia on the front lines. Its summer offensive is widely acknowledged — even by some Russian war hawks — to have failed, gaining very little land at huge cost in both personnel and machinery. Its soldiers are increasingly demoralized — videos circulating online show men talking about being forced into combat despite serious health issues and viciously abused if they try to resist — and the number of people willing to sign up to fight is dwindling.

On the homefront, the Russian economy is cratering, as Trump pointed out. Ukrainian drone strikes deep in Russian territory, hitting oil refineries and military facilities, are not only damaging but demoralizing, with many Russians experiencing the war’s costs firsthand. A recent poll by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent polling agency, found that a record two-thirds of Russians favored ending the war quickly.

Perhaps Trump has gotten to the point where he sees Putin as the loser in this war — and he never wants to be on the loser’s side.

Of course, we Ukraine supporters should beware of excessive optimism. Trump could easily "pivot" again. What’s more, he hasn’t pledged any action other than continuing to sell weapons to NATO so that it can continue to arm Ukraine — along with vague threats of sanctions against Russia.

But while words are cheap, the American president’s words still matter. It’s important that Trump is at least rhetorically backing Ukraine’s fight for its freedom. If, as seems to be the case, he is giving up on attempts to negotiate peace, that’s almost certainly a good thing: so far, his peace efforts have only given Putin more legitimacy and subjected Ukraine to more pressure.

If Trump says the right things while Europe, NATO and Russia hawks in the U.S. Senate do the work of arming Ukraine and sanctioning Russia, that’s probably the best we can expect. 

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.