A telling stat for the affordability election
People are primarily concerned about economic issues like higher prices and fewer job opportunities, according to the AP Voter Poll. Credit: Rick Kopstein
Perhaps it was mere happenstance, not intentional coincidence, that new data on first-time homebuyers in the United States was released on Election Day. But it surely was fitting.
A survey from the National Association of Realtors found that the median age of those buying their first home is a record 40 years old. That's seven years higher than just four years ago, and a telling commentary on the bludgeoning effect of sky-high home prices and mortgage rates, especially on Long Island.
The number acquired even more significance by emerging on a day when the nation's three most prominent races were won by candidates whose signature issue was affordability — New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, both elected governor of their states.
The first-time homebuyer stat is an important one. Buying a house has long been a marker of success, a milestone for young adults in terms of both financial stability and emotional satisfaction. Frustration with not being able to achieve the American dream of homeownership has been described as a motivation for many Mamdani voters, in particular.
This isn't new ground these candidates are plowing. Political strategist James Carville coined the phrase "It's the economy, stupid" in helping Bill Clinton win the presidency in 1992.
But using "affordability" instead of "the economy" changes the focus in a small yet meaningful way. It makes the issue more personal. The economy might be doing OK according to traditional statistics, but that is of little consolation to someone having trouble affording it. Like the families of the tens of thousands of workers being laid off by companies like GM, Amazon, Paramount, Target, Intel, Microsoft and UPS. And the nearly 160,000 Long Island customers of PSEG or National Grid who were at least 60 days late in paying their bills as of September, as Newsday's news division recently reported. No wonder numerous Long Island candidates also sounded the affordability alarm.
Donald Trump won last year's presidential campaign at least partly because he successfully made the argument that many people were struggling despite assurances from then-President Joe Biden's administration that the economy actually was strong. How odd now to hear Trump respond to the three Democrats' victories by telling Fox News' Bret Baier that "we've done so much" and "the country is doing very well." On Thursday, he provided campaign fodder for next year by responding, "I don't want to hear about the affordability," when asked about the price of groceries. "Groceries are way down. Everything is way down."
He doubled down later in Miami, telling the America Business Forum that "we have the greatest economy right now" but "a lot of people don't see that."
He's right. They don't see it. Not because they're blind to reality, but because life affordability-wise actually is not good for them.
The AP Voter Poll of more than 17,000 voters in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and California found that their primary concern was economic worries like higher prices and fewer job opportunities. A new survey in Arizona from the GrayHouse polling firm found that nearly twice as many of that swing state's voters said affordability was their top issue compared with borders and security.
Of course, talking about affordability is easy. Delivering is difficult. Mamdani wants to lower the cost of child care, freeze rent and make city buses free. Sherrill promises to freeze electric bills via executive order and expand a first-time homebuyers program. Spanberger is targeting pharmacy benefit managers to reduce the cost of prescription drugs and promoting energy efficiency and a modern electric grid to bring down energy costs. All three want to stimulate more affordable housing.
Ideas abound. Executing them — the ones grounded in reality, at least — requires cooperation between parties so loath to let the other get the credit that nothing gets done. That would truly be unaffordable.
Columnist Michael Dobie's opinions are his own.
Michael Dobie is a retired member of the Newsday editorial board.
