Democratic victories pose future problems for both parties

The Democrats are rightfully celebrating their most successful election in five years. They won every significant race from the New Jersey and Virginia governorships to California’s redistricting referendum.

But behind the headlines are signs of future issues for both parties.

Lackluster Republican turnouts sent a warning of potential problems for the GOP’s bid to keep House and Senate control next year. In both New Jersey and Virginia, the percentages for their losing candidates approximated President Donald Trump’s low 40s job approval levels, and last year’s gains among Hispanics disappeared.

Trump blamed the results on the monthlong federal government shutdown and "Trump not on the ballot." But he won’t be there for future elections either, since he can’t legally run again.

At the same time, the Democratic successes spotlighted the internal ideological split that will be one of their defining aspects over the next three years, climaxing with their choice of a 2028 standard-bearer.

That division was epitomized by the contrast between New York City’s choice of a Muslim socialist, Zohran Mamdani, as mayor, and the elections of two moderate Democratic women, Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, as governors of New Jersey and Virginia.

Mamdani campaigned on a sweeping platform that offered free subways, rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. By contrast, Spanberger vowed, "I’m not going to make promises that I can’t keep, but I will work tirelessly to deliver."

Already, more than a half-dozen states face 2026 Democratic primaries between candidates from its progressive and establishment wings. A similar contest is likely to mark the primaries to choose its 2028 presidential nominee.

Republicans and their supporters sought to make New York’s socialist mayor-elect the Democratic Party’s new poster child. "Mamdani is the future face of the Democratic Party, whether Democrats like it or not," proclaimed the conservative publication National Review.

Not only do top Democrats dispute that, but the electorate that chose the 34-year-old Uganda-born Mamdani as New York’s youngest mayor in a century is far different from those in most of the United States. New York City is only half as white as the country, and twice as Black and Hispanic. It includes one-eighth of the nation’s Jews and one-fourth of its Muslims.

And Mamdani’s winning margin over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — 9 points — was less than Spanberger’s 15-point victory and Sherrill’s 13-point margin.

Spanberger’s victory was especially impressive, the biggest for any Virginia Democrat in more than 60 years. It swept in her two running mates, a Muslim woman who was elected lieutenant governor, and a Black attorney general candidate, who survived a series of controversial disclosures including a text suggesting shooting a top GOP legislator.

In two other big cities, Minneapolis and Seattle, establishment mayors were rebuffing challenges from progressive rivals who sought to emulate Mamdani’s successful anti-establishment campaign.

One of the day’s biggest Democratic winners was a non-candidate, California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

A potential 2028 presidential aspirant, he has gained points in recent weeks with Democrats seeking a more aggressive approach to Trump by initiating and passing a pro-Democratic redistricting plan to counter the GOP’s pro- Republican redistricting of Texas. (Meanwhile, Kansas Republicans dropped plans to squeeze out the state’s lone Democratic representative.)

Another potential 2028 candidate, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, also got a political boost with the sweeping reelection of three Democratic state Supreme Court judges for whom he campaigned.

Other victors included two Georgia Democrats who ousted Republican incumbents from the state’s Public Service Commission for the party’s first victories for any state offices since 2006. Mississippi Democrats flipped two GOP state Senate seats.

The Georgia victories were an encouraging sign for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, the most endangered incumbent in the 2026 election, as well as for future party presidential hopes in a state that was hotly contested in 2020 and 2024.

Ossoff won’t face a primary, unlike many 2036 Democratic Senate hopefuls. Many of those primaries will mark the next round between progressive and establishment democrats.

One is well underway in Michigan, where the national party establishment is backing Rep. Haley Stevens for an open seat. She faces a challenge from state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who opposes keeping Sen. Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader, and Sen. Bernie Sanders ally Abdul El-Sayed.

In Maine, where Democrats hope to oust veteran Republican Sen. Susan Collins, Gov. Janet Mills is being challenged by Graham Platner, an oyster farmer backed by Sanders. Maine voters Tuesday rejected a plan to limit mail and early voting.

In at least three other states — Iowa, Minnesota and Texas — Senate primaries loom between progressive and establishment Democrats.

As for 2028, at least two progressive Democrats, California Rep. Ro Khanna and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, are exploring presidential bids, and there is speculation New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Sanders ally, will join them.

But Democrats expect a large field, including Newsom, Shapiro and several other governors. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump in 2024, has not ruled out running again.

Tuesday’s results fit the historical pattern in which the party winning the presidency performs poorly the following year. Virginia has elected a governor from the presidential loser’s party in almost every election for 50 years, but New Jersey’s Democratic victory marked the state’s first party three-peat since the 1960s.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten suggested the Democratic sweep of New York, New Jersey and Virginia was an especially bad GOP omen. The last five times it happened, he said, the winning party won the House the next year.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is a columnist for the Dallas Morning News.