Schumer finally has a plan for a government shutdown

Your move, Republicans. Congressional Democrats, led by a united Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, have decided to go big this time.

The last time Congress was faced with the prospect of a government shutdown, in March, the Senate minority leader rolled over, incurring the wrath of his party. This time, he has found his spine, and more importantly, a salient economic issue to fight over: the Affordable Care Act tax credits that are set to expire at the end of the year. In staking out ground over health care, Schumer and congressional Democrats are drawing an easy-to-understand contrast with the GOP. Republicans, saddled by bad polling over their "big beautiful bill," would be wise to ignore President Donald Trump’s unworkable guidance to go it alone, and get to the negotiating table. That could result in a deal that represents a win for their party, and more importantly, for Americans.

The clock is ticking, with both chambers set to go on recess next week and the Oct. 1 deadline looming. The House is set to vote as soon as today on keeping spending at current levels until Nov. 21. The vote will be an exercise in futility, given how far apart the sides are.

Republicans simply want to kick the can down the road and not address the looming Obamacare issue. By contrast, Democrats’ plan would fund the government through Oct. 31 and would permanently extend the ACA tax credits. It would also reverse devastating cuts to Medicaid that will hit rural red counties especially hard. Their bill also boosts security for government officials and restricts Trump’s ability to rescind congressionally allocated funding. (God forbid congressional Republicans give themselves back some power.)

The likelihood of a shutdown seems higher this time than in previous cycles, with Democrats buoyed by a base that wants a fight and Republicans dug in as well.

Another unknown is who gets the blame politically, if any is to be assigned. It is hard to imagine voters, constantly flooded with chaotic news out of Washington, not to mention the stress of their own lives, remembering who did what and why come November 2026. Still, Democrats have had some success in messaging, branding Trump’s signature legislation as harmful to the health care system. Their efforts now are simply an extension of what they have been saying for months. Being the health care party isn’t a bad thing. Positioning this fight as a debate over health care versus a "clean CR" — a bit of Congressional argot few Americans understand — underscores their brand.

According to polling from Data for Progress, a left-leaning firm, a majority of likely voters select Social Security, Medicare and health care as the top issues that should be prioritized as lawmakers consider a government funding package. The survey suggests Republicans would get most of the blame for a shutdown, with 32% of likely voters blaming President Trump, 27% blaming Republicans in Congress and 34% blaming Democrats.

It will be hard for Republicans to shift blame to Democrats because, on every issue from tariffs and appropriations to crime and immigration, Trump has dominated national policy. At every turn, he has sidestepped Republicans in Congress. At every turn, they have yielded their power to the executive branch. And it is Trump who instructed congressional Republicans to go it alone and "don’t even bother dealing with" Democrats.

"We will get it through because the Republicans are sticking together for the first time in a long time," Trump said in a Friday interview on Fox News. But funding the government will take more than Republicans sticking together — with 53 seats in the Senate, Republicans need at least seven Democrats to pass a funding bill.

House Democrats are united in opposition to the GOP plan. In the Senate, Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman is likely the one Democrat who would back the House’s bill, a shift from March when 10 Democrats voted for that continuing resolution. Getting across the finish line this time will take compromise and negotiation and bipartisanship — but those concepts are foreign to Trump 2.0. Consider that Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought in July called for an appropriations process that is less bipartisan, in advance of Republicans voting for a recessions package that clawed back money that Congress had already appropriated. That episode has Democrats even more skittish about playing ball with Republicans this time. What’s the point of passing a budget bill that feckless Republicans will just rescind?

But if Democrats mistrust Republicans, they also have some misgivings about each other. House Democrats are wary of Schumer following his March cave. Schumer, for his part, is open to negotiation and knows that bipartisanship is the only way forward.

"We don’t have a red line, but we know we have to help the American people. We know our bill does. We know the American people will reject the status quo embodied in the Republican bill," Schumer said. "We have two weeks. We should sit down and maybe we could get a good proposal."

The minority leader doesn’t sound exactly hopeful, but at least he has a plan and a good hill to die on.

This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Nia-Malika Henderson is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former senior political reporter for CNN and the Washington Post, she has covered politics and campaigns for almost two decades.