Stefanik, Blakeman, even Lawler? GOP's elusive quest for NY governorship

Daily Point

Which Republican rides that rocky road to Albany?

The odds for next year’s Democratic nomination for New York State governor currently favor Gov. Kathy Hochul against insurgent Lt. Gov. Anthony Delgado. On the Republican side, it’s far more difficult right now to handicap who will emerge for the top spot.

State Republican Party officials are expected to try their best to avoid a primary and rally behind President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, whoever that proves to be, at next spring’s state committee convention. But those drawing discussion in the GOP haven’t yet announced their candidacy.

From Long Island, there’s Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who continuously aligns with Trump. In previous decades, he lost bids for state comptroller, the U.S. House and Senate and withdrew from the GOP race for New York City mayor. He faces reelection this season, having barely upset incumbent Democrat Laura Curran for the job four years ago.

Now, as a key state Republican leader told The Point last week, Blakeman could boost his stock for governor "if he blows the doors off" his underdog challenger, Democrat Seth Koslow, a Nassau legislator. 

From upstate, Rep. Elise Stefanik these days earns way more media buzz than Blakeman as a potential gubernatorial candidate. Touting MAGA support in Washington, she said she will announce her intentions after the Nov. 4 election.

In recent weeks and months, however, she’s raised eyebrows — with openly barbed attacks on fellow upstate Republicans.

During a period when Stefanik was expected to become Trump’s United Nations ambassador, a backroom clash boiled over. Some GOP leaders in her 21st Congressional District reportedly backed two-time congressional candidate Liz Joy to succeed Stefanik. But Stefanik and her team stridently rejected Joy’s candidacy despite Joy’s clear MAGA loyalty.

Stefanik was a close ally of Assemb. Chris Tague, who was also in the running to succeed her. Ultimately, however, it was decided in the White House that Stefanik should stay in her congressional seat while Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson was trying to push through key legislation using a thin party majority.

But the internal disarray on Stefanik’s home turf didn’t end there. She intervened in a special-election nomination for a local Assembly seat. During that fracas, Stefanik issued harsh broadsides against Jerika Manning, the Clinton County GOP chair, whose resignation the congresswoman demanded, calling her "incompetent," "inexperienced" and "selfishly divisive."

Clinton County GOP vice chair Jeff Luck replied that he and Manning got repeated calls regarding the nomination from Stefanik, an ally who "became more unprofessional, disrespectful, condescending, threatening, manipulative, vindictive, delusional, and, frankly, untruthful."

That’s the tart flavor of Stefanik’s recent political interactions. The state party source told The Point that Stefanik’s concerns over races other than her own "is something she really should have looked beyond." Still, the official added, "I don’t know how that developed," and going forward, "I don’t think it’s a major thing." Stefanik could still decide the circumstances aren’t right for her to pull off an underdog win in a state that hasn’t had a Republican governor since 2006.

Despite others’ uncertainty, however, Stefanik was due Wednesday to announce the creation of a "Save New York" PAC to help fund local GOP campaigns. In an interview with Politico she was quoted as saying: "Candidates know that when they have the support of Team Elise — this is a highly professional team that knows how to turn out the vote and win, and we’re going to do that ... statewide."

Before vowing to seek reelection next year, Rep. Mike Lawler was widely considered to be the strongest potential challenger for governor. Would Lawler reverse course, if needed, and make a move for the Executive Mansion? Or perhaps another contender will pop up in the months ahead.

There are risks involved for the Republicans: A weak candidate atop the ticket wouldn’t bode well for downballot candidates for Congress, the State Legislature or local offices. In 2022, Hochul’s tepid performance allowed then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, the GOP candidate, to come closer to winning than expected. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed the Democratic campaign for allegedly ignoring discontent about crime and causing House Democrats to lose five key races in New York.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Extreme caution needed

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Data Point

The mail-in voting divide

President Donald Trump has associated mail-in voting with a fraudulent election system — a claim long refuted by courts, election officials and even members of his own party — and has said he will end it. More than half the states offered "no-excuse" mail ballots in the 2024 general elections. That year, nearly 73,000 Long Islanders opted to mail in their ballots.

Until 2020, New York required a registered voter to state a valid reason, such as illness or being out of the state, in order to obtain an absentee ballot. The COVID-19 pandemic changed that. Former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo expanded eligibility criteria to include concern about catching the virus, and 2023 legislation allowed registered voters to obtain early mail voting ballots with no excuse needed.

In the 2020 general elections, a record 314,463 Long Islanders mailed in their ballots, according to data obtained by The Point from the New York State Board of Elections. Fewer mail-in ballots were returned and counted in the elections that followed, including the 2024 presidential elections.

Trump greatly benefited from early voting in the 2024 election, including on Long Island, where about 210,000 registered Republicans voted using this process. Yet, the mail-in ballot voting debate has not been a bipartisan one. An August Pew Research Center survey found that 58% of Americans support having the option of casting ballots by mail. However, support was distinctly higher among Democrats than Republicans.

— Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

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