The story LI's election numbers tell so far

Daily Point

The numbers so far

The New York City mayoralty is the dominating story of the 2025 election and what that result could portend for 2026 including control of the House of Representatives and the New York governorship. In Nassau County, where there are three contested countywide races and control of its three towns and two cities are being decided, any fallout from the epic struggle in NYC is likely to be immediate and quantifiable.

Returns should start flowing after 9 p.m. with the usually reliable Suffolk County Board of Elections posting timely numbers. The notoriously slow Nassau County Board of Elections says it will no longer wait for a Nassau police officer to drive the electronic "sticks" holding the data from each voting machine to Mineola. Poll workers have been given an iPad to upload the results but don't expect too much too soon.

The Nassau tallies cited in this edition of The Point are from Board of Election reports as of 5 p.m.

The Nassau total combined daily, absentee and early voting ballots stands at 262,573 with Republicans holding about a 4,000-vote lead over Democrats and even larger if you count the 3,389 votes cast by registered Conservatives. However, the 47,714 ballots cast by unaffiliated voters will write the headlines. The independents who swing this suburb will decide whether County Executive Bruce A. Blakeman and District Attorney Anne T. Donnelly win second terms.

Will the GOP's slick move to install John R. Ferretti Jr. as Hempstead supervisor in August and the county and town's support of a casino at the Hub have backfired, enabling political newcomer Joe Scianablo to be the only second Democrat in town history to become supervisor?

Of the 143,634 votes so far in Hempstead Town, GOP voters cast 57,775 ballots while Democrats hits 56,316 and blanks came in at 24,081. Conservatives had cast 1,892 ballots.

Nassau 

Among the three towns, the biggest concentration of Democrats is in North Hempstead, but Democrats have lost the supervisor race twice to Jennifer S. DeSena running on the Republican line. Still, it's a town where many residents commute into New York City and where anti-Trump sentiment runs strong. Democratic challenger Dave Kerpen — a total unknown, with no party organization and described even by his allies as "a character" — could benefit from outrage in the town from some particularly upsetting ICE enforcement operations.

But if there's a backlash to Zohran Mamdani, the front-running Democrat for NYC mayor, the benefit will accrue to DeSena.

As of 5 p.m., the total of daily, early and absentee votes stood at 45,186. That includes votes by 18,814 Democrats, 15,012 Republicans and 9,872 nonaffiliated.

Glen Cove is often one of the places worth watching in local election years as a telling example of the "every vote counts" adage. In 2017, just three votes separated winner Tim Tenke, a Democratic city councilman, from Republican incumbent Reginald Spinello once every ballot was counted — and recounted. Four years earlier, Spinello had defeated then-incumbent Democrat Ralph Suozzi by 74 votes.

Now, 2025 may be no different. In a race not too dissimilar to 2017, Republican Mayor Pamela D. Panzenbeck is facing Democratic challenger Marsha Silverman, a city councilwoman. Silverman, sources said, is a known quantity, popular with residents and often a top vote getter. But Panzenbeck, too, is popular and well-known.

By 5 p.m., the turnout numbers were close, but slightly favored the Democrats, as 2,368 Democrats, 1,952 Republicans and 1,249 blanks had turned out to vote when combining Election Day, early voting and absentee data. Rounding out the totals were 75 Conservatives and 216 Independents.

In a vote that is mimicking an episode of "The West Wing," several observers are closely watching LD 4 in Long Beach, where ballots show incumbent Patrick C. Mullaney facing the late Petros Krommidas, a Democrat.

Krommidas went missing in April; his clothes and car were found near the Long Beach boardwalk, and he is presumed dead. Some voters, poll watchers said, are pushing back against the Nassau GOP's successful effort to keep Krommidas on the ballot when Democrats tried to substitute a new candidate. Krommidas' family members and friends have sought to encourage votes for him to honor his memory.

There's a chance, observers say, that Krommidas could pull out a victory. That would result in a special election early next year. The numbers, so far, are telling — and close. In LD 4, as of 5 p.m., 6,953 Democrats and 6,256 Republicans had turned out to vote, when combining Election Day, early voting and absentees. But there's a significant number of blanks — 2,839.

Also key: a significant part of that district is the city of Long Beach, where several city council seats are on the ballot. As of 5 p.m., 3,919 Democrats, 2,254 Republicans and 1,320 blanks had turned out to vote in total. That, one Democratic observer said, could spell problems for incumbent Michael Reinhart and two Republican challengers.

"These numbers are a horror show for the Long Beach GOP," the observer said, noting that Republicans focused their campaign on highlighting national issues and President Donald Trump, which may not play as well in Long Beach as it does elsewhere in Nassau County.

In the newly drawn Nassau legislative districts, LD 9 Democrat Juleigh Chin is challenging Republican incumbent Scott Strauss. The district is now considered an "Asian influence" district where more than a third of the electorate is Asian American. It also now encompasses most of the Herricks school district, where Chin serves as school board president. And turnout by party, when combining early voting, absentee and Election Day, was just about as tight as it can get as of 5 p.m., when 4,991 registered Democrats and 5,066 registered Republicans had turned out to vote. Here, too, it'll be about the "blanks." There were 3,131 of them as of 5 p.m. Democrats are hoping they'll lean toward the newcomer, especially given the demographic breakdown of the district.

In LD 16, Republicans looking for one more seat to gain a supermajority are focusing on Democratic incumbent Arnold W. Drucker. Of the 14,559 votes, 6,754 were by registered Democrats, 4,555 by Republicans and 2,791 by blanks. In the heavily Jewish district, the blanks have traditionally voted Democrat, but that assumption may no longer hold.

Suffolk

With no contested countywide races, the focus is on the legislature where Republicans hold a 12-6 supermajority. Preliminary numbers suggest that control could weaken a bit.

Same-day voting by political party seemed to lean Democratic in a few key districts as do the absentees counted so far although countywide, 75,748 registered Republicans voted as of 6 p.m. compared with 73,491 registered Democrats. There were 39,340 blanks who voted as of 6 p.m.

Absentees trended the same way. Of the 9,647 ballots returned, 4,640 were from registered Democrats compared with 2,799 registered Republicans. A total of 1,679 absentee ballots were submitted by voters not registered with a political party.

All races in the Town of Huntington seem closer than many predicted, highlighted by the contest in LD 18, where GOP incumbent Stephanie L. Bontempi had a feisty challenger in Democrat Craig Herskowitz. The tally in the town so far: 7,303 registered Democrats voted compared with 6,452 registered Republicans and 4,020 blanks.

The Republican efforts to target incumbent Rebecca Sanin in LD 16 by resurrecting former GOP Town Supervisor Chad Lupinacci appear to have sputtered. There were 4,789 registered Democrats who voted as of 6 p.m. compared with 3,341 registered Republicans and 2,041 blanks.

Republican incumbents held surprisingly slim leads in two districts. In LD 7, held by Republican Dominick S. Thorne, Republicans only had a 3,452-3,120 edge in voting by party. There were 1,865 blanks who voted as of 6 p.m. The narrow lead is surprising since Democrat Jawaan M. Sween isn't actively campaigning. And in LD 1, held by Republican incumbent Catherine L. Stark, there were 7,044 registered Republicans who voted as of 6 p.m. compared with 6,641 registered Democrats and 4,340 blanks.

If Republicans have a net loss of just one legislative district, they lose their supermajority.

In perhaps the legislative district race that got the nastiest, the GOP holds a big edge. LD 8 incumbent Republican Anthony A. Piccirillo seems to be fending off Democrat challenger Kelly A. Perry. Registered Republicans were leading the voting on Election Day over Democrats 6,737-4,017. There were 2,894 blanks who voted in LD 8 at of 6 p.m.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com, Mark Nolan mark.nolan@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Face you can trust

For more cartoons, visit www.newsday.com/nationalcartoons

Pointing Out

Vintage Blakeman — your man in NYC

Tonight Bruce A. Blakeman expects to celebrate his reelection as county executive. But 16 years ago, he was broadcasting an electoral pitch for himself that contrasts sharply with the profile of his current campaign: Mr. Suburbia.

In 2009 Blakeman, a perennial candidate, sought the Republican nomination for New York City mayor. He ran an ad that hinted "I'm one of you" to residents of the five boroughs. "Bruce Blakeman is running for mayor! Bruce Blakeman grew up on the border of Queens and lives in Manhattan!" Watch it here.

Fact Check: Located in one of the most western parts of Nassau County, Valley Stream is on the border of New York City.

"Bruce Blakeman's qualifications and experience are as follows: he was a busboy, dishwasher, bartender, garbageman, janitor, bouncer, teacher, lawyer, councilman, legislator, commissioner and businessman." Those qualifications were piled up on the screen as visuals in the low budget production.

Maybe the "Manhattan" and "border of Queens" patter could be useful next year if he runs for governor and seeks to get the 30% or so he would need to cut into New York City's overwhelmingly Democratic vote. But this year in the suburbs, his GOP scenario was pure MAGA.

Nobody knows how Blakeman might have done in 2009 had he stayed the course. But incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg that year ended up delaying his succession by getting a law passed that suspended the city's two-term limit so he could seek a third. Blakeman dropped out once it was clear that Bloomberg, who won in November, was in the mix.

Bloomberg would later become one of Donald Trump's sharpest critics, while Blakeman became known as Long Island’s top Trump cheerleader, demonizing all Democrats local, state and national.

Tunes do change from one campaign to the next. At 70, Blakeman's ambitions remain high, even after electoral losses in previous decades. A win tonight could be the entryway to the county executive setting his sights as high as they have ever been.

"He's run for every job except dogcatcher," said a longtime Hempstead Republican. Could that be the true significance of the dog in this old ad?

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Subscribe to The Point here and browse past editions of The Point here.