Mets' Carson Benge played his way into a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate

Carson Benge suffers from no false modesty. He doesn’t downplay his ambition or fear of not achieving his goal – even when professional prognosticators say the odds aren’t in his favor.

Especially then.

After all, you don’t defy statistics. You don't become part of the 0.5% of high school baseball players that make it to the big leagues without just a little bit of the brashness that asks "Why not me?"

You certainly don’t make yourself a Rookie of the Year candidate that way.

“It’s definitely a goal,” Benge told Newsday on the final day of the regular season. “It was definitely in my mind [the whole time] but it definitely wasn’t the only thing I was riding or dying on. It doesn’t define me, but I knew that if I just went out there and played my game, I would be in the running and I would be deserving of that award."

In a few weeks, there’s a chance that attitude will pay off.

Though it might be gauche to look at sportsbook odds and prediction markets when it comes to rookie of the year voting, it’s also probably one of the more up-to-date gauges of where the race stands. In the waning days of the season, a theme emerged – Benge, who had nary a prayer in early September, made a striking surge during a scorching final month, gaining significant (if modest) ground on Reds slugger Sal Stewart.

Per Kalshi, the first federally regulated prediction market, Benge had a 1% chance of winning the award on Sept. 17 compared to Stewart’s 91.7%. By the last day of the season, Benge’s number had ballooned to its highest yet at 34.3%. Vegas odds showed a similar trajectory, with him leapfrogging teammate Nolan McLean in the final weeks.

There's still heavy debate on the ethics of sports gambling and prediction markets when it comes to MLB, but because of how Rookie of the Year is awarded, this information is more illustrative than predictive.

A pool of 30 members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America are tasked with voting for Rookie of the Year at the conclusion of the regular season, and those members are strictly prohibited from placing wagers. The award will be announced on Nov. 11.

Odds can’t always accurately predict the whim of the individual, particularly when a handful of votes carry a lot of sway.

But some things are incontrovertible:

1. Benge made a real case for himself - notable because Stewart appeared to be a layup after Cardinals defensive wunderkind JJ Wetherholt went down with a late-season injury.
2. All statistics indicate that Benge is the more well-rounded player, though Stewart is certainly the flashiest.

Stewart’s numbers actually make Benge’s candidacy more surprising. The first baseman's 111 RBIs were third in baseball and his 32 homers ranked first among National League rookies, with power to all fields.

Benge, though, was worth 4.3 wins above replacement (third among rookies, according to FanGraphs) while Stewart was worth 2.0 (17th). Benge’s defense is far superior, and Stewart gets dinged for both playing a non-premium position and doing it at a below-average level. Benge is also a much better baserunner – in the 95th percentile of all players, according to Baseball Savant, compared to Stewart, who’s in the fourth percentile.

“He just did something no Mets rookie has ever done,” Mets manager Andy Green said after Benge became the first to record a 20-20 season. His candidacy “is well rounded. I think when you look at what he’s done defensively...and you put that together [with] all the bases, he’s done all of those things in my mind as well as any rookie in baseball. There are other people who vote on that so hopefully, he gets a few of them.”

In the end, it’ll come down to what voters value most.

Stewart’s offensive output is too gaudy to ignore and there was a solid stretch where he led all of baseball in RBIs. Benge has a more complete game and evolved throughout the season. After batting .189 in March and April, Benge hit .315 in August and September. His OPS-plus (118) and batting average (.282) were both higher than Stewart’s (117/.263).

The goal this offseason is to have him fill out in hopes of making him a bigger power threat.

“I felt like for me personally, this was all that I wanted from the first season,” Benge said. “It’s been everything I was told it was going to be…I just kind of never lost grip of that confidence. If you think you can’t do it anymore, then you’re screwed. Even through your worst times, knowing you belong and knowing you’re here to stay in this league will help you out tremendously.”

There’s that self-belief again. It’s what got Benge through the harrowing first months and allowed him to build a credible case for Rookie of the Year – against all odds.