Predicting the destinations for the top 20 MLB free agents. Where will Tarik Skubal land?

History suggests that the next three weeks — leading up to the presumed lockout that would take effect at midnight Dec. 2 — will replicate the free-agent frenzy (to some degree, anyway) from 2021, the last time labor strife effectively shut down baseball. 

Five years ago, teams spent more than $2 billion on free agents before the sport went dark, including $1.4 billion spread over 27 new contracts on Dec. 1 alone, a single-day record.

This signing period officially launched Monday at 5 p.m., but the serious discussions — along with potentially the first wave of deals — won’t kick off until the general managers' meetings begin Monday in Las Vegas. From there, the clock will be ticking.

Granted, this year’s free-agent class is extremely top-heavy, with a sizable drop-off after top prize Tarik Skubal, so we don’t expect to see the same eye-popping numbers from 2021. But there is plenty of middle-rotation help, a few impact bats and an A-list closer to tempt owners to dole out some cash even though they won't know the payroll restrictions that await them on the other side of the lockout (if the 2027 season does take place).

Against that backdrop, here is a list of 20 top free agents, along with our predictions for their landing spots. (Fingers crossed we’ll actually get to see them in these new uniforms next summer.)

1. Tarik Skubal

The back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner stands high above the rest of this year’s middling free-agent class, so Skubal shouldn’t have a problem beating Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million contract, the current record for a starting pitcher. The fit is too perfect in Flushing, where the owner won't blink at Scott Boras’ demands. Plus there’s no obvious Plan B for missing out on this generational talent.

Prediction: Mets

2. Randy Arozarena

The disappointing Mariners failed to build on their momentum from 2025, but don’t pin that on Arozarena, whose career year should land him in top-10 MVP consideration after he hit .281 with 26 homers, 26 stolen bases and an .865 OPS. Seattle’s qualifying offer might suppress bids, and the defending NL East champs could use the offensive spark.

Prediction: Atlanta

3. Teruaki Sato

Sato can thank the breakout performances of last year’s Japanese free agents — Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto — for jacking up his price tag this November. MLB suitors won’t make the same mistake and doubt the offensive transition of the NPB Triple Crown winner (.306 batting average/39 homers/106 RBIs).

Prediction: Mariners

4. Freddy Peralta

Few players, if any, did more to boost their free-agent value after the trade deadline than Peralta, whose stock skyrocketed with the AL champion Rays. Peralta went 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his final six regular-season starts, then had a 1.08 ERA in four postseason appearances (three starts) before being dented by Milwaukee in his lone World Series start.

Prediction: Cubs

5. Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki is competing with Arozarena in the corner-outfielder market and has two of the most coveted skills available: He's a dependable righthanded hitter who plays Gold Glove-caliber defense. He batted .270 with 26 homers and an .841 OPS  and his 14 defensive runs saved (DRS) ranked eighth among all MLB outfielders. Also has a qualifying offer attached.

Prediction: Blue Jays

6. Michael King

King’s competitive nature was forged in the Bronx, but he further developed his ace-like qualities after arriving in San Diego. He had a 3.15 ERA in three seasons, averaging 26 starts. King polished his resume by allowing one run and striking out 15 in two playoff starts this October. Driving up I-5 makes sense.

Prediction: Dodgers

7. Trevor Rogers

Rogers, who will turn 29 later this month, finally is trending in the right direction again after a shaky three-year stretch plagued by injuries and underperformance. He posted a 1.81 ERA in 2025 in 18 starts, then made 30 for the Orioles last season, pitching better than a 4.03 ERA would suggest (his 1.19 WHIP ranked 13th among AL starters).

Prediction: White Sox

8. Adrian Morejon

Every team dreams of a lefty reliever who throws 100 mph, but only a select few will pony up the cash for one, and Morejon, 27, is going to strike it rich as the most coveted bullpen weapon on the market — or as a starter, as some reports suggest. He’s coming off career highs in appearances (76) and innings (86). He has the qualifying offer attached.

Prediction: Dodgers

9. Brandon Lowe

In a weak position-player class, a second baseman with 35 homers and an .824 OPS should generate plenty of interest. The previously injury-prone Lowe also logged a career-high 150 games in 2026 — funny how that happens in a walk year — but his defense remains a bit of a question mark. The Pirates gave him the qualifying offer.

Prediction: Pirates

10. Luis Arraez

Finding contact-heavy hitters again is the focus after the Brewers won a title by putting the ball in play, and no one does it better than Arraez, a three-time batting champ with the lowest strikeout percentage (5.8) in the majors since 2019. Plays three infield positions but prefers second base, and he has improved there defensively.

Prediction: Tigers

11. David Bednar

Unlike some other imported high-leverage pitchers who flamed out while wearing pinstripes, Bednar checked off the last box as a closer by handling the Bronx pressure. He has a 2.39 ERA and 10.6 K/9 rate in 86 appearances since the 2025 trade deadline. Bednar tied for second in the American League with 35 saves in 2026 and had only four blown chances.

Prediction: Yankees

12. Jake Bauers

After nearly retiring two years ago, Bauers  indeed is going to be rich, as Brewers manager Pat Murphy famously told him after the clinching Game 5 of the World Series. It’s just a matter of how rich, as he’s already got the $23.15 million qualifying offer on the table. Bauers hit 26 homers with a 140 OPS+, then was an October hero, further driving up his price tag.

Prediction: Padres

13. Ryan Jeffers

The Yankees had their eye on Jeffers as a trade possibility at the deadline, but the Twins chose to be buyers, and Minnesota extended him the $23.15 million qualifying offer last week. Much of his walk year was derailed by hamate bone surgery, but Jeffers still hit 14 homers and had an .814 OPS in 92 games.

Prediction: Cubs

14. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 

Chisholm didn’t quite live up to his bold prediction of a 50-50 season, hitting 19 homers and stealing 41 bases, and unfortunately wound up making more noise with a lollipop than his bat on the way out of the Bronx.  Brian Cashman wisely avoided the QO route this time, but the talented Chisholm could regain his groove on a short-term, prove-it deal.

Prediction: Reds

15. Sonny Gray

Gray had a Cy Young Award-caliber season (18-5, 2.72 ERA) with the Red Sox,  so  even as he turns 37 this month, the 14-year veteran should be a reliable boost to a current contender. Seems like a good match for the defending NL East champs.

Prediction: Atlanta

16. Kevin Gausman

The Blue Jays capitalized on Gausman’s walk-year status at the trade deadline, but at age 35, he’s still got plenty to offer with ace emeritus credentials coming off a combined 32-start season (nine with the Cubs) and a 9.3 K/9 rate. The 14-year vet loved his time in Toronto, so a reunion is a strong possibility.

Prediction: Blue Jays

17. Nick Martinez 

Talk about being at the right place at the right time. Martinez already had rejuvenated his post-NPB career before arriving with Tampa Bay this season, but with free agency looming, he went next level, pitching to a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and setting career highs in starts (31) and innings (180) for only $13 million. That will be going up significantly, even at age 36.

Prediction: Orioles

18. Clay Holmes

Oh, what might have been this past season for both Holmes and the Mets if not for that 111-mph line drive off the bat of Spencer Jones. Holmes never really got back on track (4.25 ERA) for the Cubs, going straight from Mets rehab to Wrigley in a deadline deal, but this is a story primed for a do-over in Flushing.

Prediction: Mets

19. Shota Imanaga

Imanaga had a good run on the North Side after NPB stardom, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three seasons, but the lefty’s penchant for fly balls made him best when the wind was blowing in at Wrigley. He teed up 35 homers this past season, the second-most in the majors, so it’s smart to put him in a spacious, pitcher-friendly home.

Prediction: Giants

20. Kaima Taira

Taira has spent most of his career as a dominant reliever for the Seibu Lions, but he wants to be a full-time starter in MLB and seems to possess the makeup to do so. Having a 100-mph fastball definitely helps, and he’s coming off a 12-5 season with a 1.36 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 24.8 strikeout percentage in 146 innings.

Prediction: Red Sox