Yankees' Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon optimistic about Cole's 2026 season
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole throwing in the bullpen with pitching coach Matt Blake looking on during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Friday in Tampa, Fla. Credit: Newsday/J. Conrad Williams Jr.
TAMPA, Fla. — The bottom line is, no one knows what version of Gerrit Cole the Yankees will be getting when the ace righthander returns.
Even Cole doesn't know.
It has gone swimmingly for Cole and his rehab since his Tommy John surgery on March 11. That continued through Friday when the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner threw his first official bullpen session of spring training (he began throwing last August and was throwing bullpen sessions by November).
That prompted what must have been music to the ears of Yankees fans.
“He looked like Gerrit Cole,” Aaron Boone said.
“He looked like a Cy Young pitcher,” added Austin Wells, who caught the session, one in which Cole’s fastball sat in the range of 94 to 96 mph.
Encouraging comments for sure. They certainly beat the alternative.
Generally speaking, though, affixing too much meaning to any pitcher’s bullpen session, especially one coming off a significant surgery, often is fool’s gold when it comes to predicting anything for the regular season.
And Cole certainly wasn’t.
“I’m a confident guy. I have high expectations for my execution internally. But overall, in terms of performance and expectations, I don’t really have any set goals or numbers or things like that,” said Cole, who used the phrase “long and tedious” to describe his rehab process. “It’s been working really well to just stay day-to-day and execute the task at hand. So I think the challenge is to continue to do that as things become more exciting and things start to get rolling.”
Boone caused some minor headlines on Wednesday when he said it's possible that Cole will get in some exhibition games by the end of spring training, but that should not be seen as evidence of Cole being fast-tracked.
From the outset, talks with Cole, the team and the surgeon who performed the surgery, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, revolved around the usual recovery time for Tommy John surgery — 14 to 18 months.
Nothing has changed in that regard, meaning if Cole ends up at the front end of that timeframe, May 11 would be 14 months.
“We want to make sure we give him the proper time to make sure he is good and ready to come back, built up in a smart way,” Boone said. “We won’t rush that with him, even if it continues to go incredibly well.”
Said Cole: “When I’m told to push, I push. When I’m told not to, I don’t. I really haven’t deviated hardly at all from our targets.”
Though the Yankees haven’t said so, there is a strong possibility that Cole will begin the season on the 60-day injured list, meaning the earliest he could be activated would be May 24.
While a return by then seems realistic, rehab for pitchers who undergo significant surgeries are notoriously fickle.
Cole, among the most durable pitchers in the sport before a flexor strain cost him the first 2½ months of 2024 and the surgery ended his 2025 season before it ever began, has talked to teammates and friends in the game who have had the procedure.
One of the former group is lefthander Carlos Rodon, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019, also performed by ElAttrache.
Speaking on Saturday, Rodon, who will start the season on the IL after undergoing surgery in October to remove loose bodies and shave a bone spur in his left elbow, said every rehab process has “its ups and downs.”
He was referencing his own offseason surgery but later said that “definitely” was the case with his Tommy John rehab.
“It can be perfect for two weeks and all of a sudden you wake up and it’s like, man, this elbow is just not what it was yesterday,” said Rodon, who could be back as soon as late April. “That’s where it can get frustrating. If you’ve never gone through a rehab process or some sort of surgery where you’ve got to bring your arm, your tool, back to what it was, there’s adaptations that need to be built. But Gerrit’s a pretty smart guy and he knows these things.”
Many pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery over the years have said they don't truly feel like themselves again until their second season back
“I would agree,” said Rodon, 33. “The first year, and I had an interesting rehab because mine was during COVID, so that was kind of tough, but the next year [the second year back], I was like, ‘Holy crap, this really worked.’ And I hadn’t felt like that since I was 22 years old.''
Rodon was 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP — both career bests — and 185 strikeouts in 132 2/3 innings in 2021.
"For a lot of guys, and it’s not the same for everybody, for a lot of guys, it is usually the second year,'' Rodon said, "because that first year, you’re really trying to work through the kinks, you’re working through things. You did a lot to that arm.”
Though that is the majority of pitchers, it isn’t all of them. Cole need look no further than his close friend Justin Verlander, who missed the 2021 season after having Tommy John surgery and won the third of his three Cy Young Awards in 2022 at the age of 39 after going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. (Verlander, who will turn 43 on Friday, is still going, signing with the Tigers last week.)
Cole will turn 36 in September, and Rodon very much could see his teammate following Verlander’s path in his first year back rather than those pitchers who didn’t feel completely back until Year 2.
“Gerrit, it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s just like, ‘OK, we’re back to normal. We’re riding the horse again,’ ” Rodon said. “I’d be like, ‘Yep, not surprised at all. Doesn’t surprise me one bit.’ And it very well could be. And I hope it is. For our case [as a team], selfishly, yeah. I wouldn’t be surprised, and I hope that’s the case.”
Erik Boland started in Newsday's sports department in 2002. He covered high school and college sports, then shifted to the Jets beat. He has covered the Yankees since 2009.
