Yankees, Mets have so much invested, but will it result in a playoff payoff?

The rare scheduling quirk that had both the Yankees and Mets playing in New York this past week provided us with the chance to bounce between the Bronx and Flushing within a 24-hour span.

The experiences were shockingly similar. And not in the ways we would have anticipated back in mid-June.

Hal Steinbrenner and Steve Cohen both spent over $300 million to build what everyone assumed were legitimate October contenders. Instead, what we’ve witnessed over the last 2 1/2 months, and more specifically since the All-Star break, has been the play of pretenders here in August — a degree of failure that was unimaginable when the two New York rivals were penciled in for a Subway Series rematch on June 12.

Not surprisingly, the chorus on both sides of town has struck a familiar refrain, led by the two former Bronx colleagues and friends, Aaron Boone and Carlos Mendoza. But the stay-the-course, everything’s-in-front-of-us mantra has worn thin from the daily repetition, and by Thursday night, when the Mets blew yet another lead (thanks deadline super-pen) in a 4-3 loss to Atlanta, Mendoza’s subdued postgame missives seemed to reveal slight cracks in the team’s once-confident veneer.

Who could blame the Mets’ manager? Like Boone, Mendoza sends out a lineup every night that should be talented enough to win on a far more consistent basis, just as they did through mid-June earlier this season. And it’s not just about the two managers putting players in their best positions to succeed — too many of the trusted stars haven’t done what they’re paid to do.

As a result, not only did the Yankees and Mets both have identical records (64-57) before taking the field Friday night, they also held a half-game lead over the state of Ohio (Guardians/Reds) for the final wild-card spot in their respective leagues. That’s a stunning scenario, especially when it comes to Cleveland — a team whose payroll ($123M) is less than half of Steinbrenner’s tab, has two of its top relievers suspended due to gambling allegation and was a seller at the trade deadline.

So here’s the $300 million question: Which New York teams has the better shot of making the playoffs? According to the FanGraphs, the Yankees are listed with an 88% chance, the fifth-best odds (for six spots) in the AL, and the Mets are at 75.5%, which is the sixth-highest in the NL.

Favorable projections, to be sure. But realistic? To anyone who’s watched both teams lately, October feels more like a coin flip. With that in mind — and 41 games remaining — here’s a breakdown of how the Yankees and Mets are situated for the stretch run, then draw your own conclusions.

YANKEES

Boone & Co. have the edge over the Mets when it comes to an October berth, but a lot of that has to do with their remaining strength of schedule rather than personnel. The Yankees mostly took care of business this past week by taking two of three from the Twins, a team they’ve owned (125-44) since 2002, before being stopped in the series finale by Minny’s ace Joe Ryan, who along with Byron Buxton were the only two valuable players not traded by them at the deadline.

Going forward, the Yankees will be facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .483, the fourth-easiest schedule in the majors (according to Tankathon.com) that includes just four teams in playoff contention. In fact, after a three-game trip to Fenway Park (Sept. 12-14), the Yankees finish the season with three games each against the Twins and White Sox, and six with the Orioles.

Statistically, since June 13, the Yankees haven’t been quite as bad as their Flushing counterparts. While going 23-32 over that span is pretty alarming, ideally they do have Max Fried and Carlos Rodon to stabilize the rotation, with the promising Will Warren (1.93 ERA over last four starts), newly-activated Luis Gil and flame-throwing rookie Cam Schlittler capable of keeping them in games. Bullpen-wise, David Bednar seems worthy of holding down the closer’s role, but Camilo Doval has been shakier than expected and Devin Williams has flunked out of any high-leverage assignment.

“There’s a lot of time on the clock, but not enough time to . . . I don’t want to misrepresent there’s not urgency, because there is,” GM Brian Cashman said before Friday’s game in St. Louis.

Offensively, the Yankees have been mostly middle of the pack since mid-June, averaging 4.55 runs (11th in MLB) with a .731 OPS (16th) while hitting .235 (26th). It’s already known that Aaron Judge is nursing a flexor strain in his throwing arm, but is that the sole reason why Judge has been less than his MVP-self during the Yankees’ extended swoon, hitting .231 with an .896 OPS and a 30% strikeout rate (13 HRs in 45 games). On the plus side, the Yankees’ miraculously managed to keep Giancarlo Stanton — their hottest hitter (.299 BA, .949 OPS) — intact before returning to DH and giving Ben Rice the bulk of the catching duties should be an offensive boost as Austin Wells (.206) has been awful. Even Anthony Volpe has looked better lately, more sure-handed at shortstop with occasional contributions at the plate.

Playoff verdict: IN. The combination of weak opponents, sturdy (enough) rotation and an expected bounce-back from Judge for the six-week sprint should allow the Yankees to hold off a far-inferior Guardians team, at the very least, if not nudge higher in the wild-card race.

METS

Not much has gone right in Flushing for more than 2 1/2 months now, and Friday’s 11-9 loss to the Mariners, yet another roller-coaster of blown leads and reliever implosions, dropped them to 19-34 since June 13 — only the Nationals (19-35) have been worse over that span.

Looking ahead, the Mets have the 10th-toughest schedule in the majors, with opponents combining for a .509 winning percentage. But given their performance lately, it doesn’t seem to matter who’s in the opposite dugout, as they were throttled last week, at home, by an Atlanta team — without Ronald Acuna Jr. — playing out the string.

Not all that long ago, it was considered a plus that the Mets still had seven games left with the Phillies, presumably giving them a chance to make up ground in the divisional race. Now, Mendoza & Co. have to worry about the Phillies shoveling more dirt on their wild-card chances.

Perhaps the most worrisome thing for the Mets? It’s never been just one thing. When a team blows 11 leads in seven games, it’s truly a roster-wide effort, from abbreviated outings by the starting pitcher, to the bats vanishing midgame and finally — when everything does somehow go right — the bullpen spraying lighter fluid on a W seemingly within the Mets’ grasp. Ryan Helsley, the prize of the deadline trades, has been atrocious, with three blown saves in his last three appearances and an 8.44 ERA in seven games since coming to the Mets.

Perhaps most stunning has been the epic fail by the rotation, which went from being MLB’s best (2.79 ERA) before June 12 to providing starts as ugly as they are brief. Since June 13, the rotation’s 237 2/3 innings are the fewest in the majors (an average of 4.48 per start) with a 5.34 ERA that’s tied with the Cardinals for the fourth-worst overall. Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea haven’t been the second-half saviors they figured to be returning from injuries, Clay Holmes could be tiring now that he’s already doubled his workload (126 IP) from a year ago, Frankie Montas lost his starting job this past week and even David Peterson — the staff’s iron man — couldn’t hold a 6-0 lead in surviving only 3 1/3 innings on his last turn.

“Trying to stay positive,” Manaea said after Friday night’s loss, the Mets’ 14th in 16 games. “Right now, it’s tough.”

As for the lineup bailing them out, Francisco Alvarez is the team’s OPS leader (1.026) since July 15, followed by Starling Marte (.917), Brett Baty (.809), then finally Juan Soto (.800). Speaking of Soto, he’s hitting .188 with runners in scoring position, which is 10th-worst in the majors, and of his 30 home runs this season, 24 are solo shots.

But Pete Alonso has flexed some muscle en route to passing Darryl Strawberry, hitting .340 in August with six homers, 18 RBIs and a 1.117 OPS in 13 games. Francisco Lindor has heated up this past week, going 9-for-16 with three homers and five RBIs in four games.

Playoff verdict: IN. Despite numerous trends pointing to the Mets falling short of October, it’s still hard to imagine a roster with this much talent continuing to win at just a .358 clip for the next six weeks. And at this point, it’s only a matter of holding off Cincy, which isn’t exactly the Big Red Machine. As bad as they’ve looked, it's not too late for a wake-up call, and with the offense showing signs of functioning like it should, the lineup is stacked enough to cover for pitching deficiencies down the stretch.