Future is now as MLB rookie arms dominate on the mound
The Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski pitches during the first inning against the Mets on July 2 at Citi Field. Credit: Jim McIsaac
During the final week of August, in a 72-hour span, four of MLB’s starry can’t-miss rookie pitchers recorded a 1.21 ERA with three walks and 23 strikeouts in 22 1⁄3 innings.
The Pirates’ Bubba Chandler, who rated as high as No. 7 in the sport’s top 100 prospects, gets an asterisk, as Pittsburgh has been breaking in the soon-to-be 23-year-old as a reliever since his call-up earlier this month. Plus, the pathetic Pirates, who made their last playoff appearance in 2015, are headed for their seventh straight losing season, so what’s going on by the banks of the Allegheny is mostly glorified Grapefruit League these days.
Which brings us to the varsity level of this week’s events, Friday’s twin debuts of the Mets’ Jonah Tong at Citi Field and the Red Sox’s Payton Tolle at Fenway Park. (The latter faced off against Pittsburgh’s prized sophomore sensation, Paul Skenes, the 2023 draft pick who already has started two All-Star Games by age 23.
Tong, the 22-year-old Tim Lincecum doppleganger out of the ’22 draft, struck out six in his five-inning stint, surfing an early 12-0 lead to earn the 97-pitch victory (much-needed as the Mets firm up their grasp on a playoff spot while still chasing the Phillies).
Up in Boston, Tolle was in a similar spot, with the Red Sox giving their top prospect the surprise start — and dumping Walker Buehler — while trying to solidify their own October positioning. Tolle, 22, struck out eight in 5 1⁄3 innings and was charged with two earned runs when Greg Weissert allowed two inherited runners to score.
Lastly, of course, is budding Mets phenom Nolan McLean, 24, whose Wednesday night domination of the Phillies (eight scoreless innings, zero walks, six strikeouts) made him the only pitcher in franchise history to win his first three starts — an incredible stat, given the team’s mound pedigree in its 64-year existence. McLean has a 0.89 ERA, but perhaps most remarkable is the length he’s provided with starts of 5 1⁄3, seven and eight innings, a rarity in this workload-obsessed era.
Mets rookie Nolan McLean pitches against the Seattle Mariners on Aug. 16 at Citi Field. Credit: Jim McIsaac
According to OptaSTATS, McLean is the first pitcher with a 3-0 record, 20-plus innings, 20-plus strikeouts and a sub-.200 opponents’ batting average in his first three career starts since Randy Johnson (for the Expos) in 1988.
McLean just got here, but more and more in the case of these top arms, we’re finding that many of these youngsters are fine being thrown into the deep end of the pool.
“I’ve always been a believer in my stuff,” McLean said. “I’m a confident guy. Obviously, the hitters here are the best in the world, I know that. But I also know I have good stuff, and if I go out there and execute, I can get a lot of guys out as well.”
McLean began this season at Double-A Binghamton — which is stunning, given his maturity level only four months later — and rapidly developed into Syracuse’s most polished pitcher at the next level (2.78 ERA in 16 starts). Seeing him almost singlehandedly restore belief in a Mets rotation that was severely regressing in the second half can’t help but beg the question: What took so long to get him to Flushing?
Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler on the mound during a game against the Washington Nationals on Aug. 25 at Yankee Stadium. Credit: Newsday/Thomas A. Ferrara
To think the Mets had to wait for Frankie Montas to flunk out of the rotation before finally summoning McLean. They were way too patient, even with the two-year, $34 million investment in Montas (he’ll now be picking up that ’26 option after Tommy John surgery is expected to wipe out next year).
As for Tong, he wasn’t even on the Flushing radar when this season began, as president of baseball operations David Stearns repeatedly preached caution with his young minor- league arms. But that policy radically changed this month. The Mets’ faith in Kodai Senga continues to plummet and they also needed to adopt a six-man rotation during a stretch of 16 straight games.
Presto! Just like that, Tong — despite only two starts for Triple-A Syracuse — was hustled to Citi Field for his major-league debut, and on Friday, manager Carlos Mendoza went as far as to say that he’ll be staying in the rotation for the foreseeable future, too. That was predictable. With the Mets’ playoff spot far from assured, though vastly improved in the past week, the rotation should be switching to full-meritocracy mode for September — and October, too.
“As you roll into the last month of the season, you want to have the best roster you possibly can,” Stearns said.
Sounds simple enough. And Tong certainly rewarded Stearns’ aggressive promotion with Friday’s electric performance, marking another landmark for the Mets — the first time in franchise history two rookie starters have won their debuts in the same season.
Red Sox rookie pitcher Payton Tolle gestures to the sky while walking to the dugout against the Pirates on Aug. 29 in Boston. Credit: AP/Mark Stockwell
What’s also hard to believe? It took a decade for the Mets to launch a pair of their blue-chip pitching prospects during the same year, going back to Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz in 2015.
“They’re going to feed off each other,” Mendoza said Friday night. “And then when you see what the potential could be and then they’re contributing right away . . . obviously exciting.”
The Mets’ unveiling of their NextGen rotation is a new phenomenon in Queens, but across town, it’s already been going on for a while. The Yankees were pushed to do so when crisis struck much earlier. Will Warren, who turned 26 in June, was at best a No. 7 starter when spring training began but was thrust into the Opening Day rotation because of lengthy injuries to Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (lat-muscle strain). He leads all qualified rookies with 28 starts, is second with 136 innings and is sixth with a 9.86 K/9 ratio.
That’s some solid work by Warren, who’s been incredibly valuable to the Yankees. But he’s also become old news lately because of the meteoric rise of Cam Schlittler, a seventh-round pick in the 2022 draft at No. 220 overall, 11 spots after Tong.
Schlittler, 24, was chosen out of Northeastern while Tong was a high-schooler from Ontario, Canada, but both weren’t really penciled in to make an impact during World Series-or-bust seasons for their respective franchises. Like McLean, Schlittler began this year at Double-A, got promoted to Triple-A Scranton in June, then was called up to replace the injured Clarke Schmidt in early July after only five starts at that level (which is close to Tong’s brief Triple-A tuneup).
Now? Schlittler is seriously pushing for October consideration. He was 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 9.8 K/9 ratio in eight starts before taking the mound Saturday night against the White Sox, but his worth to the Yankees goes beyond those stats. He possesses the highest velocity of anyone on the staff with a fastball that averages 97.8 mph and maxes out in the triple-digits, combined with a knee-buckling curveball.
Schlittler’s lethal velocity and Warren’s every-fifth-day stability follow Luis Gil earning 2024 Rookie of the Year honors (15-7, 3.50 ERA) after having nearly two seasons erased by Tommy John surgery. That’s a fairly decent conveyor belt of young starters in the Bronx, especially when you consider that the Yankees traded away four top young arms — most notably Michael King — for Juan Soto during the 2023 offseason.
But as we’re witnessing around the majors, young pitching not only is more coveted than ever, it’s a commodity that’s calling for sooner deployment over development. Why use those bullets in the minors when they could help win games in the middle of a playoff race?
The Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski, 23, was the early tone-setter in mid-June, soon leading to his controversial All-Star selection, but he’s being upstaged around the sport lately, including by Tong and Schlittler — both drafted five rounds after Misiorowski in 2022 — and McLean, a third-rounder a year later.
And Boston’s Tolle? He was pitching for Texas Christian University when those others began their professional careers, as the Red Sox picked him in the second round of the 2024 draft. That’s a grand total of 18 minor-league starts, more than half at High-A Greenville, as he jumped three levels this season before showing up Friday night at Fenway Park.
“We have to make sure we are thinking about best positioning this group to win as many games down the stretch here,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters Friday.
That mantra is coming through loud and clear heading into Labor Day. With an eye toward October, too.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
