Yankees' offseason blueprint not as defined as it was a year ago
Yankees GM Brian Cashman talks to reporters during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Fla., on Feb. 15, 2024. Credit: Newsday/J. Conrad Williams Jr.
LAS VEGAS -- The Yankees had virtually a perfect offseason a year ago. Coming off a World Series loss to the Dodgers, they sidestepped paying Juan Soto $760 million, then diverted a fraction of that cash for a successful pivot to Max Fried and Cody Bellinger.
It was a win-win. Hal Steinbrenner got credit for going all-in on Soto -- yet forced the Mets’ Steve Cohen to pick up the 15-year tab -- and GM Brian Cashman looked brilliant for coming away with two smart roster upgrades at a lesser cost.
This winter, the Yankees’ blueprint isn’t quite as defined, with a number of hazy questions that don’t have clear-cut solutions. Last year’s free-agent market was held hostage by the Soto derby, but when it was finally resolved in mid-December, Cashman had the financial clarity to quickly proceed with a Plan B.
So what’s the playbook this offseason? That’s tougher to figure. The Yankees’ priority certainly appears to be Bellinger, but does Cashman sit tight again waiting to see if he’s on the hook for roughly $200 million before shifting to other options?
And if Bellinger ultimately does take the Yankees’ cash, what’s left over for the remaining roster renovation? Cashman, who was limited to Wednesday’s Zoom cameo due to a personal matter that kept him from Vegas, declined to provide any estimates regarding the 2026 payroll. But Steinbrenner’s stated reluctance to operate in the $320-million neighborhood he did this year is bound to become a factor at some point. And with labor strife threatening to wipe out a sizable chunk of the ’27 season, could a salary-cap hawk like Hal be wary of going too big in the coming months?
The Yankees already have invested $261 million in the ’26 roster, according to Spotrac, and that number includes projected arbitration raises. But if Trent Grisham chooses to accept the qualifying offer (the deadline is Monday at 4 p.m.) that tacks on another $22 million. Figure Bellinger gets somewhere around $30 million a year, and that bumps the Yankees right back over $300 million again -- without importing any rotation or bullpen help.
“We are always fluid with our payroll situation,” Cashman said Wednesday. “And out of all the things we have here in the organization, payroll usually is not an issue. They’ve always been supportive. I think payroll is obviously something we play with, but we’re pretty strongly invested. What an ultimate payroll number is going to be? I haven’t gotten that from Hal Steinbrenner.”
Complicating matters is all the money the Yankees have on the shelf -- at least to start the season. Gerrit Cole ($36M) is recovering from Tommy John surgery and probably won’t be ready to rejoin the rotation until May. Carlos Rodon ($27M) is coming off an elbow cleanup and also could miss the first month or more. Clarke Schmidt ($5M) will take even longer, likely into the season’s second half as he rehabs from TJ surgery as well.
That leaves Cashman with a more nuanced course of action this winter. Does the GM try to get the Yankees back into the Japanese market by pursuing Seibu Lions ace Tatsuya Imai, who could command a $150 million deal once he’s made available through the posting process next week? They’ll need some flexible depth to the rotation, and let’s see how much of that is governed by the price tags as well.
“We’ll be exploring how to protect ourselves so we’re not taking on water early because our rotation is compromised out of the gate,” Cashman said. “Certainly can’t wait to get those guys back -- Cole and Rodon especially. But it’s an area for us to focus on.”
The Dodgers loaded their pitching staff with redundancy over the past few winters, from stacking aces in the rotation to adding multiple closers. So when those numbers were decimated by injuries, they not only had enough to survive the regular season, but could slow-play their recoveries in order to have the starters at full strength for October.
We saw how well that strategy worked out during the Dodgers’ march to a second consecutive title, as even Roki Sasaki - the pitching prize from last winter -- wound up being a converted closer for the playoffs. L.A. used 13 starters during the regular season as only two pitched more than 100 innings -- Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Clayton Kershaw.
Then again, pitching is awfully expensive. And while re-signing Bellinger would simplify the Yankees’ offseason -- preferably with Grisham declining the Q.O. -- that doesn’t eliminate the other question marks. The Yankees won’t have Anthony Volpe (shoulder surgery) for Opening Day, so they’ll need a shortstop, and Cashman didn’t sound ready to just plug in Jose Caballero on Nov. 12.
“I’m looking to upgrade anywhere on the roster,” Cashman said. “Right now, Caballero’s the guy, by default, and if we run into something even better, great. Then we’ll assess what the cost of acquisition is and go from there.”
Cashman is going to need to get creative this winter. As confident as both he and Aaron Boone were on the eve of the playoffs regarding this roster’s potential, running it back with Bellinger & Co. doesn’t seem to be on the agenda. But just how far the Yankees are willing to go remains unclear, too. One season removed from a World Series trip, they’re still in the midst of a 16-year title drought, and certainly didn’t look any closer to a crown after getting bounced in the Division Series by the Blue Jays. Now Cashman has the next three-plus months to draw up a blueprint that hopefully succeeds where all those others failed.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
