Do the Rangers have any chance of winning the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery?

What are the odds the Islanders and Rangers could win the NHL Draft Lottery in back-to-back seasons?

Unlikely, no doubt. But after the Islanders became the longest shot to win the lottery last year, with just a 3.5% chance to do so, the Rangers have a chance to follow their rivals to the East and grab the No. 1 pick in the draft on Tuesday, when the NHL holds the 2026 lottery.

“I can tell you, we're extremely prepared,’’ Rangers GM Chris Drury said in his season-ending Zoom call with local reporters on breakup day last month. “We’re certainly glad we gave up the pick we did last year, so we have the pick this year. We’re excited it's in the top five.’’

The Rangers, who amassed 77 points in the regular season, are currently third in the draft order, and have the third-best odds (11.5%) of winning the top pick. The Vancouver Canucks, whose 58 points were by far the fewest in the league, have an 18.5% chance to win the lottery, and a 25.5% chance to win the No. 1 pick.

Since teams are only allowed to move up a maximum of 10 spots in the lottery, if a team drafting lower than 11 were to win, Vancouver would be locked into the No. 1 spot. Thus, their odds of picking aren’t solely reliant on their own chances of winning the lottery, but get a boost from the chances of teams 12 through 16 winning.

Chicago, which had the second-fewest points in the season, has a 13.5% chance to win the lottery. Calgary has the fourth-best odds, at 9.5%. Calgary actually tied with the Rangers with 77 points, but technically finished above them in the standings (and thus, below them in the draft order) because they had more regulation-time wins (27-25).

If a team below the Rangers wins the lottery and jumps over them and into one of the top two spots, the Rangers would slip down the draft order. Whatever happens, though, they are guaranteed to be picking in the top 5.

They also have a second pick in the first round, the one belonging to Dallas, as a result of last summer’s trade of K’Andre Miller to Carolina.

It worked out for the Rangers that they gave up their first-round pick — which was 12th overall — last summer, and kept their pick this year. They had traded their first-round pick to Vancouver in January 2025 for J.T. Miller, and the Canucks moved the pick to the Penguins at the deadline for defenseman Marcus Pettersson. The Rangers had the option to keep the pick last year and surrender it this year, but they chose to give it to Pittsburgh last year.

There isn’t the same kind of buzz about this year’s top draft prospects as there was around Matthew Schaefer, whom the Islanders took with the No. 1 pick overall last summer. But if the Rangers were to get the top pick this year, they’d have the opportunity to draft a player who could perhaps step right into their top six forward group as soon as next season.

The consensus is that the top 2 prospects — Penn State winger Gavin McKenna and Swede Ivar Stenberg — are a clear cut above the rest. McKenna, who is 5-11, 170, is rated the top skater in the NHL’s final North American skater rankings, while Stenberg, who is 5-11, 183, and plays for Frolunda, Henrik Lundqvist’s old club, is the NHL’s top-rated European skater.

After those two, there is a group of highly rated defensemen: Alberts Smits, a 6-3, 205 Latvian, who plays in the German league, is the NHL’s No. 2 European skater prospect, and Chase Reid, a 6-21/2, 195-pounder out of Sault Ste. Marie of the OHL, is their No. 2 North American skater. Carson Carels (Prince George, of the WHL), a 6-2, 198-pounder; Keaton Verhoeff, 6-31/2, 208 (University of North Dakota), and 6-21/2, 206-pounder Daxon Rudolph (Prince Albert of the WHL) are in the group as well. Smits and Carels are left-handed shots; Reid, Verhoeff and Rudolph are righthanders.

The next most highly regarded forward is probably Caleb Malhotra, a 6-2, 182-pound center out of Brantford, of the OHL, and the son of former Ranger Manny Malhotra. He’s rated No. 6 among North American skaters on the NHL’s rankings.

If the Rangers do win the first pick, it would be the second time they’ve won the No. 1 overall selection in the lottery. They won the lottery in 2020, and drafted Alexis Lafreniere. They also won the lottery the year before, 2019, winning the No. 2 pick overall, which they used to select Kaapo Kakko.

By Colin Stephenson

colin.stephenson@newsday.comColinSNewsday

Colin Stephenson covers the Rangers for Newsday. He has spent more than two decades covering the NHL and just about every sports team in the New York metropolitan area.