Long Island's minority neighborhoods are leaving the Democratic Party, data shows

Many voters in Long Island’s minority neighborhoods have left the Democratic Party in the last decade to become independent voters, a data analysis by Newsday found.

Ten years ago, nearly 60% of Long Island voters in "majority-minority" districts were registered Democrats. Last year, that number dropped to about 50%, with a growing number of voters declaring themselves "unaffiliated" with any party. 

"This has been a yearslong crisis in the making," said Ahmad Perez, founder and executive director of Islip Forward, a group working to grow voter registration in Brentwood. "These are pockets that have historically been the bedrock of Democratic turnout. … but Democrats are struggling to maintain relevance in working class and minority communities."

Meanwhile, voters in majority-white districts were loyal to their political parties. A decade ago, about a third of that population was Democrat, a third Republican and a quarter “unaffiliated.” Those percentages are almost exactly the same today.

Politicians and activists across the political spectrum interviewed by Newsday said these findings were not surprising. Nationally, Democrats are hemorrhaging enrollment. The party lost about 2.1 million registrants across 30 states between 2020 and 2024, while Republicans gained about 2.4 million, according to a New York Times analysis. Last November marked the first time independent voters outnumbered Democrats nationally, tying with Republicans, according to Edison Research.

Though Democrats are losing enrollment among minority neighborhoods, they still make up almost half of active voters across New York State. Independent voters are second, making up a quarter of active voters, followed by Republicans at 23%.

Voter registration data is tracked by the state, when residents fill out a form asking them what party they wish to enroll in — Democratic, Republican, Conservative, Working Families or other — or "I do not want to enroll in any political party," ranking them independent.

For this analysis, Newsday merged data on voter registration from the New York State Board of Elections with data on election-district boundaries from the New York State Geographic Information Systems Clearinghouse, the Nassau and Suffolk elections boards, and data on block-level demographics from the U.S. Census Bureau's Decennial Census.

For minorities, Democratic failures are ‘personal’

While trust in traditional political parties is eroding across the board, minority voters losing faith in the Democratic Party is personal, said Dan Lloyd, the host of the podcast Politics & Culture and founder of Minority Millennials, a group pushing for civic engagement among young minorities.

"For decades, Black and brown voters have been the backbone of the Democratic Party, turning out reliably every cycle to protect its values and secure wins in close races," Lloyd wrote in a statement. "It was the Democrats who championed labor, who stood shoulder to shoulder with working-class families, and who broke barriers. … That legacy matters, but it must be re-earned."

Now, Democratic leaders on the national level are "older, more insulated, and increasingly out of step with the urgency of working-class life," Lloyd said, dragging their feet on affordable housing and tackling student debt.

In the meantime, "Republicans are courting disillusioned Latino and Black voters," leaning into promises of small business relief and economic well-being, Perez said. "Republicans are talking about quality of life, affordability, taxes. … Whether or not they have a plan, the message is still clear and easy to repeat."

'There's a new party'

Hispanic Americans are the country’s largest racial or ethnic group, making up 20% of the nation’s population as of 2023. Though their voting preferences are not singular, in the few states that track political party enrollment by race, Latinos have dropped off from the Democratic Party in recent years.

Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic political consultant, said minority voters no longer just  vote for whoever is listed as the Democrat when they show up to the polls.

"People are voting based on individual candidates and issues," he said. "There's a new party. They're called suburbanites and they're registering as blank."

In Brentwood, where more than three-quarters of the population is Latino, residents cast nearly 34% more Republican votes in 2024 than they did in 2020, according to Perez. On average, Brentwood's predominantly immigrant election districts shifted nearly 7% to the right, he added, though still electing Democrats across the ballot. 

Glen Cove, home to one of Nassau’s largest Latino populations, and a city that didn’t have a Republican mayor until four years ago, voted for Trump, Newsday previously reported.

"This is a gold mine for Republicans," Perez said. "There’s no better situation for them on Long Island than the Democrats turning their backs on communities of color."

GOP courting independents

On Long Island, about 36% of voters are registered Democrats, 31% are registered Republicans and 29% independent, according to Newsday’s analysis. There are differences by county: Nassau is home to more Democrats and Suffolk leans slightly more Republican.

Democrats and Republicans have taken turns winning over Long Island’s independent voters for decades, said Mike Dawidziak, a pollster and Republican political strategist.

In the early 2000s, Democrats swept the Island, winning county executive seats in 2003 and 2005, district attorney races and a majority in both legislatures in 2005, he said. They also held four of the five town supervisor seats.

"The Republicans had to reboot. … They said, ‘We now have to learn how to go after independents,’ " Dawidziak said.

By 2021, Long Island saw its "first red wave," and Democrats ceded several key incumbent seats, Dawidziak said.

Former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran, a Democrat, lost her bid for reelection to Republican Bruce Blakeman by 2,150 votes. Former Suffolk County Presiding Officer Rob Calarco, also a Democrat, lost his bid for reelection to Republican Dominick Thorne by 620 votes.

People "voted Republican not because they became Republicans, but because of what’s been going on in Albany. They’re really voting against — not Long Island Democrats — but Albany and New York City Democrats," Dawidziak said, adding that Long Islanders largely opposed cashless bail, zoning reforms and congestion pricing.

That same year, New York City elected Mayor Eric Adams and one of the most progressive  councils in the city’s history.

Howard Kopel (R-Lawrence), presiding officer of the Nassau County Legislature and once a Democrat, put it this way: "People look next door and see New York City as this dystopian horror."

Long Island Democrats representing swing districts have loudly distanced themselves from their counterparts in the five boroughs. Rep Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), whose district covers a slice of Queens, said earlier this month that Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic pick for New York City mayor, should find a new political party.

"Why are you messing with the Democratic brand?" Suozzi said.

Joe Cairo, chair of the Nassau County GOP, said: "Thirty years ago it would be unheard of for the [Democratic] state chairman to not support the mayoral candidate for his party in New York City," Cairo said.

Jay Jacobs, chair of the state's Democratic Party, announced recently he will not endorse Mamdani.

Sheinkopf agreed: "Every time Mamdani opens his mouth, he creates another suburban Republican."

Meanwhile, Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre), seeking reelection in her own swing district, is voting more conservatively than 99% of her fellow Democrats in Washington, Newsday reported. 

Voter registration doesn’t mean votes

Voter registration is a lagging metric for how people vote, said Kyle Strober, executive director of Association for a Better Long Island, a coalition of business and real estate groups, and former Long Island regional director for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

"A Bill Clinton Democrat differs from an [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] Democrat, just like a John McCain Republican differs from a Trump Republican," he wrote in a statement.

In the state Senate district that covers the North Shore from Great Neck to Laurel Hollow, about 11,000 more Democrats showed up to the polls than Republicans last November, according to voting data obtained by Newsday. But Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) won by more than 16,500 votes, in large part thanks to the 48,000 independent voters who showed up that day.

"You know that old cliche, 'Democrats are the party of the working class?' " Cairo said.

In the 1950s, "Republicans were the party of the white collar and the more affluent. … But that’s not true anymore," he said. "We're the party of the people." 

Sheinkopf pushed back: "It depends on who the candidates are and what they represent. ... People are afraid of crime. They're afraid of taxes. They're afraid of the city." 

Asked on television last week what Democrats need to do to win back voters, Schumer said: "What we need to do is show working families and everybody that we're on their side."

Jacobs, who also chairs Nassau’s Democratic Party, declined to comment. 

Is anybody happy?

In the 1980s, 33% of Americans said they were independent, compared with 31% who said they were Republican and 36% who said they were Democrat, according to Gallup. Last year, the split was 43% independent, 28% Republican and 28% Democrat.

"Think about that: The largest plurality of Americans say they don’t belong to either party," Dawidziak said. "It doesn’t seem like anybody is too thrilled with anybody."

Long Island’s share of independent voters has increased 4 percentage points over the last decade. In so-called "majority-minority" election districts, that increase was twofold.

"Rather than register as Republican, [minorities] have made a choice that they want to register as ‘blank’ and make their choices based on the best candidate and the best policies," Blakeman said.

Kopel added: "To some extent, people are disgusted with everyone. They’re holding their nose and they’re choosing between several different distasteful alternatives."

Newsday's Arielle Martinez analyzed the data.

 Clarification: Dan Lloyd, the host of the podcast Politics & Culture and founder of Minority Millennials, said national democratic leadership is older. An earlier version of this article did not distinguish between local and national democratic leadership. 

Correction: Jack Martins is a state senator. An earlier version misstated his legislative title.