Independent poll: Mamdani surges, could beat Cuomo in ranked choice primary voting for NYC mayor

For the first time in the race, an independent opinion poll has predicted that Zohran Mamdani would beat Andrew M. Cuomo to win New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, in what has become a two-man race.

The poll, released Monday on the eve of primary day by Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill, concludes that 33-year-old Mamdani would prevail against 67-year-old Cuomo, 51.8% to 48.2%, in ranked choice voting, erasing the double-digit lead Cuomo had maintained in other polls since even before entering the race.

Still, the race is extremely close, and Emerson's predicted outcome — Mamdani beating Cuomo by 3.6% — is within the margin of sampling error of 3.6%, a statistical metric that assesses uncertainty in a poll.

"Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release. "In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll."

The poll found that Cuomo, the state’s former governor who resigned in scandal, has 35% support; and Mamdani, a socialist assemblyman representing Astoria, Queens, 32%. But the city uses ranked choice voting, so voters list their top five choices in order, and if no candidate gets over 50% in the first round, a voter’s last-place candidate gets eliminated and the voter’s next choice is counted. The Emerson poll finds that Mamdani would win in the eighth round. It was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and surveyed around 800 likely voters.

Brad Lander, the city comptroller, has 13% support, and he and Mamdani have cross-endorsed each other. The other candidates each have support in the single digits, including the city council speaker, Adrienne Adams; the former comptroller, Scott Stringer; and a state senator, Zellnor Myrie.

If elected, Mamdani would be one of the youngest mayors in modern New York City history; Cuomo would be the oldest.

Among other findings, the poll found that in ranked choice voting, voters under 50 go for Mamdani by a 2 to 1 margin. Cuomo leads voters in their 50s, 63% to 37%, and those over 60, 56% to 44%. Men support Mamdani 56% to 44%; women support Cuomo 52% to 48%.

Mamdani has gained momentum since polling in the single digits earlier in the year. In recent weeks, as Mamdani’s support has risen, millions of dollars have poured into pro-Cuomo super PACs, which are technically not affiliated with his campaign and are not bound by traditional limits on contributions to candidates themselves.

Early voting in the race began June 14 and ended Sunday; primary day is Tuesday. Whoever wins the primary will run in the general election, which is Nov. 4. Mamdani and Cuomo spent the day before primary day campaigning. Turnout for early voting has been nearly twice the rate of the 2021 mayoral primary, which Eric Adams won. Adams isn't running as a Democrat but as an independent in the general election.

By Matthew Chayes

matthew.chayes@newsday.comchayesmatthew

Matthew Chayes, a Newsday reporter since 2007, covers New York City.